Who will win Vanderbilt women's basketball vs Tennessee? Our prediction – The Tennessean

Vanderbilt women’s basketball will end its season facing its biggest rival, Tennessee, while the two teams are going in different directions.
The Commodores (26-3, 12-3 SEC) just finished off their first undefeated home regular season in program history with a win over Alabama at Memorial Gymnasium. They’ve already secured an SEC tournament double-bye and likely a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament. But pride is on the line at Thompson-Boling Arena in their March 1 matchup (1 p.m. CT, ESPN) where Vanderbilt plays in a place it has only ever won once.
The Lady Vols (16-11, 8-7) have fallen hard after a strong start to SEC play. After the Commodores beat Tennessee twice last season, Vanderbilt has a chance to make a rivalry statement.
The Commodores have the nation’s leading scorer, Mikayla Blakes, who averages 26.9 points per game and has scored above 30 points in six of her last seven games. The Lady Vols are led in scoring by Talaysia Cooper (15.9 points per game) and Janiah Barker (13.9 points per game).
Here’s our prediction for the matchup:
Tennessee has lost five games in a row and six of their last seven. The one win was against Missouri, with losses to South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and LSU.
The Lady Vols have wins over a few NCAA tournament teams in the first half of their SEC schedule, defeating Alabama and Georgia on the road and Kentucky at home.
But even home court advantage hasn’t been a boon for Tennessee during this losing stretch, with losses to Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Texas on its home floor.
Vanderbilt has won in Knoxville one time — in 2019. It was one of the most improbable wins ever for the Commodores, who finished 2-14 in the SEC that season and won just seven games overall.
The gap between the two programs has narrowed. Last season, Vanderbilt beat Tennessee twice in the same season for the first time ever, but neither of those matchups were in Knoxville. One was at Memorial Gymnasium and the other was in the SEC tournament.
As things have spiraled a bit for Tennessee, there have been several controversies surrounding the Lady Vols. She called out her team, saying that they “quit” after a loss to South Carolina. Andraya Carter, an ESPN analyst and former Tennessee player, criticized the team on air, saying that it didn’t seem like players had belief in the system.
In contrast, Shea Ralph’s Vanderbilt team has been largely good vibes. After a win over Alabama, Ralph and players Mikayla Blakes and Sacha Washington talked about embracing playing with joy as they’re amid their best season ever.
For the Lady Vols, a win could shift the narrative entirely. But a Vanderbilt win would put the teams on a collision course to potentially play again during the SEC tournament.
Both teams were fully healthy for their most recent games.
Vanderbilt 76, Tennessee 66
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or on X @aria_gerson.

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