Vanderbilt women’s basketball likely lost its chance at a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament after its SEC tournament quarterfinal loss to Ole Miss, ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme said March 6.
The Commodores (27-4) were already a long shot to get the 1-seed. Listed as a 2-seed in the NCAA selection committee’s latest release before a win over Tennessee on March 1, they likely would have needed to advance to the semifinals, face Texas and defeat the Longhorns a second time. However, they instead lost, 89-78, to the Rebels in a game they trailed by as many as 32. Coach Shea Ralph was ejected from that game for the first time in her career.
“The upset spoiled what would have been a Texas-Vanderbilt matchup in the semifinals, a game that would have also decided the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament,” Creme wrote. “The Commodores will have to settle for a No. 2 seed, while Ole Miss raised its profile to a No. 5.”
Creme said that LSU, another team Vanderbilt beat early in the season, had the chance to surpass the Commodores and earn the final No. 1 seed as well, but it would require defeating South Carolina in the semifinals.
The good news for Vanderbilt is that if Ole Miss has indeed boosted its stock up to a 5-seed, the Rebels would be on a different side of the bracket and the Commodores would not see them until a potential national championship game.
Regardless of the SEC tournament loss, Vanderbilt will host games at Memorial Gymnasium so long as it remains within the top 16 teams ranked by the committee. With all of the Commodores’ metrics ranked well within the top 16 (they are seventh in both NET and Wins Above Bubble), their hosting spot does not seem to be at risk.
Creme’s bracket update had Vanderbilt in the same region as UConn, with an immediate grouping of 15-seed Jacksonville, 7-seed Illinois and 10-seed Clemson.
The NCAA selection show is on March 15 at 7 p.m. CT on ESPN.
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on X @aria_gerson.
