Tyler Tanner (No. 3) of the Vanderbilt Commodores shoots the ball against Sam Hoiberg of the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the final seconds of second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Paycom Center on March 21, 2026, in Oklahoma City.
Tyler Tanner (right) dribbles as Nebraska’s Sam Hoiberg defends.
Tyler Tanner (No. 3) of the Vanderbilt Commodores shoots the ball against Sam Hoiberg of the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the final seconds of second half in the second round of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Paycom Center on March 21, 2026, in Oklahoma City.
Sometime in the next few weeks, Vanderbilt basketball coach Mark Byington will either learn he has a huge returning piece of next season’s puzzle or discover that he has a massive hole to fill.
Such is the importance of Vandy guard Tyler Tanner’s decision on whether to make himself eligible for the NBA Draft or to return for a third season with the Commodores.
Tyler Tanner (right) dribbles as Nebraska’s Sam Hoiberg defends.
Some are interpreting a recent social media post by CAA, the agency representing Tanner, as an indication he’s leaning more toward a return to Vanderbilt. That’s because the words “NIL Representation” are evident on the post, listed just under CAA’s “Welcome to the Family” message.
But Tanner, a Brentwood native, has yet to make any public announcement regarding his future.
If he decides to test the NBA waters, Tanner would have to declare for the draft by late April. He would then have until late May — after the NBA Combine concludes — to change his mind or remain in the draft.
So, should he stay or should he go?
It’s hard to imagine the 6-0, 175-pound Tanner has much more to prove on the college level from an individual standpoint, after averaging 19.5 points, 5.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 2.4 steals during the 2025-26 season.
He shot 49 percent from the field, 37 percent from three-point distance and 85 percent from the free-throw line, earning first-team All-SEC and honorable mention All-America honors.
“Tyler Tanner’s presence stands out immediately, as the dynamic guard combines burst, creativity, and explosiveness to consistently pressure defenses, playing bigger than his 6-foot frame with his ability to finish above the rim,” SI.com’s Alex Golden recently wrote.
“While his 175-pound build can be targeted physically, he counters with strong point-of-attack defense and instincts in passing lanes, giving him the tools to be one of the biggest steals in the draft — especially in the right system.”
If anything, Tanner might benefit from another year’s worth of strength and conditioning on the college level. It’s unlikely he’ll get any taller, but perhaps a few more pounds of muscle would make Tanner less susceptible to unfavorable match-ups on the NBA level.
“The issue is that smaller, skinny guards are going by the wayside in the NBA and are incredibly difficult to make work in high-leverage moments with how aggressive teams have gotten at attacking what they perceive to be mismatches,” The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie wrote earlier this month.
“Teams question whether [Tanner] can guard in the NBA, as there are not many players this skinny and small who are starters.”
Another factor in Tanner’s decision will be money, weighing how much he would make in the NBA versus how much he would make in NIL money at Vanderbilt.
A sampling of recent NBA mock drafts forecast Tanner to be selected with the 28th or 29th pick of the first round.
In 2025, Boston’s Hugo Gonzalez, chosen 28th overall, signed a four-year, $14.3 million contract, with $5.7 million guaranteed, per Spotrac. He was scheduled to make $2.8 million in 2025-26, followed by $2.9 million, $3.1 million and $5.5 million in the following seasons. The Celtics hold club options on the final two seasons.
How does that compare with potential NIL money?
It’s hard to say for sure, as those figures aren’t generally made public.
But the On3 website lists NIL valuation estimates for the top 14 potential returnees to the college ranks, ranging from BYU’s AJ Dybantsa at No. 1 ($4.2 million NIL value) to Illinois’ Keaton Wagler at No. 14 ($1.5 million). Tanner’s NIL valuation estimate would presumably be less as a lower pick.
Tanner’s decision might also be influenced by the possibility he could slip into the second round of the NBA Draft. ESPN, for instance, has Tanner being selected with the 32nd overall selection — two picks into the second round — by the New York Knicks.
There’s a noticeable monetary difference between first- and second-round selections in the NBA Draft.
The 32nd overall pick in last year’s draft, forward Noah Penda, signed a four-year, $8.7 million deal with Orlando, with $3.4 million guaranteed. So Penda’s overall deal was $5.6 million less than Gonzalez got at No. 28 — just four spots in front of Penda — and his guaranteed money was $2.3 million less than Gonzalez got.
As a local product, Tanner might feel a certain loyalty to his hometown and a desire to help Vanderbilt advance to the Sweet 16 or beyond next season. This past campaign ended with a 72-74 loss to Nebraska in Round 2 of the NCAA tourney. The game will be remembered for its ending, when Tanner caught an inbounds pass, dribbled and heaved a 50-foot bomb that barely missed its mark as the clock expired. Vandy would have won 75-74 had the shot been successful.
Should Tanner choose to return — perhaps in hopes of guiding the Commodores even further in the NCAA Tournament next season — it would be a huge boost to Byington. The second-year coach would have one less hole to fill via the transfer portal, which opens April 7.
Should Tanner choose to move on, Byington would face a harsh reality, the likelihood that he’d be losing his top six scorers from the 2025-26 team. Tanner led the way, followed by five players listed as seniors this season — Tyler Nickel, Duke Miles, AK Okereke, Devin McGlockton and Jalen Washington.
A coach looking for a third straight 20-win season at Vandy — and an anxious Commodores fan base — await Tanner’s decision.
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