Connor Fennell
A year ago, Vanderbilt’s baseball team heated up in April and May, winning 22 of 30 games — including all three in the SEC Baseball Tournament — to claim a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Connor Fennell
This year, the Commodores need a strong surge in the season’s closing weeks just to make the NCAA Tournament.
Vanderbilt (24-17, 9-9), fresh off a series win at Kentucky, holds the nation’s longest active streak of making the NCAA Tournament, as the Commodores have earned bids in 19 consecutive seasons.
But Vandy’s streak could be in danger.
Heading into Tuesday’s home game against Xavier, and with 15 regular season games remaining, the Commodores — with an RPI of 72 — appear to be on the outside looking in when it comes to making the tournament.
Baseball America, D1Baseball and On3 all have Vandy failing to make the 64-team tournament field (which includes 29 automatic bids and 35 at-large selections) in their most recent projections, though each was made before the ‘Dores’ two weekend wins over Kentucky.
The good news for the Commodores this season has come at the plate, where the team is clubbing home runs at a school record clip.
Vandy’s three home runs in Sunday’s win over Kentucky gave the team 85 in 41 games, on pace for 116 in 56 regular season contests. The ‘Dores’ home run record for a single season is 100, a mark set in 71 games — including postseason outings — in 2019.
Brodie Johnston’s 13 homers lead Vandy, followed by Braden Holcomb (12), Mike Mancini (12), Logan Johnstone (nine) and Tommy Gooodin (eight).
Vandy’s 85 homers rank second in the SEC behind Georgia (113) and are among the nation’s leaders as well.
The problem for the ‘Dores has been on the pitching mound, as Vandy’s injury-plagued staff sports a team ERA of 5.48 through 41 contests. Before the weekend series with Kentucky, Vandy’s ERA (5.43 at the time) ranked 112th nationally.
The team’s leaders in starts all have ERAs over 4.00: Connor Fennell (3-1, 4.74 ERA), Wyatt Nadeau (1-2, 5.40 ERA), Connor Hamilton (1-0, 4.28 ERA), Nate Tayler (1-4, 9.12 ERA) and Alex Kranzler (2-3, 9.22 ERA).
Austin Nye has been Vanderbilt’s most significant pitching loss, as the right hander suffered a season-ending injury to his throwing arm Feb. 28 after allowing just one run in his first 10 innings pitched.
But the ‘Dores have been without a handful of other injured pitchers as well.
Will Vanderbilt’s smashing success at the plate be enough to lead the Commodores back to the NCAA Tournament for a 20th consecutive season?
Vandy will have an opportunity to increase its RPI with a home series against Texas this weekend (No. 2 in RPI) and a series at Alabama (No. 4) the following week.
There’s also the SEC Tournament, where Vanderbilt went 3-0 last season — beating Oklahoma, Tennessee and Ole Miss — to claim the title.
But as of now, the likelihood of the Commodores reaching the NCAA Tournament — even with Vandy’s 11-5 mark over its last 16 games — looks questionable.
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