Steve Roberts-Imagn Images. Pictured: Tyler Nickel (Vanderbilt)
This article contains predictions for an old game.
The Vanderbilt Commodores take on the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford, MS. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on SEC Network+.
Vanderbilt is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. The total is set at 155 points.
Here’s my Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss predictions and college basketball picks for March 3, 2026.
My Pick: Vanderbilt -7 (Play to -8)
My Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss best bet is on the Commodores to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mark Byington is having an awesome season in year two in Nashville, with the Commodores sitting at 22-7 overall and 9-7 in the SEC.
Vandy has cooled off a bit after a red-hot 16-0 start to the season, but this is still one of the best teams in the SEC. The Dores have lost three of their last four games however, including a close home loss to Tennessee and road contests at Missouri and Kentucky.
The Commodores play a really fun style of basketball, especially on the offensive end. It’s an unselfish group that places with pace and can really shoot it.
Tyler Tanner broke out this season as one of the best players in the SEC, using his speed and playmaking ability to create good looks for himself and his teammates.
He was forced into a very high usage role when backcourt running mate Duke Miles went down with an injury back in January, and Tanner stepped up to the challenge.
Vandy is at its best with both point guards on the floor though, and luckily, it got Miles back in the lineup three days ago.
Vandy takes tremendous care of the ball (11th-best in the country in turnover rate). The Dores check in at 13th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and have one of the best shooters in the entire country on the wing in Tyler Nickel.
Defensively, Vandy gets knocked for being susceptible to being bullied down low, and can struggle to defend without fouling. The Commodores are bottom-50 nationally in foul rate, and the bigs find themselves in foul trouble often.
Last time out against Kentucky, Devin McGlockton fouled out in 15 minutes of action, and AK Okereke was disqualified after 28 minutes.
Vandy makes up for this lack of might on the interior by being disruptive defensively. Led by pesky steal merchants Miles and Tanner, this group has the highest defensive turnover rate in the SEC during league play.
Chris Beard has failed to capitalize on the momentum of last season's Sweet 16 appearance, as the Rebels are 12-17 overall and 4-12 in the SEC.
The Rebs did however end a 10-game slide on Saturday, taking down an (albeit struggling) Auburn squad on the road, 85-79.
Two main points tell the story of Ole Miss’ struggles this season. The first is the defensive dropoff. Beard has been the architect of several elite defensive units in the past decade. This season's iteration is 86th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Malik Dia was the only returning key piece from last season's team, and the patched together roster of portal guys and freshmen have just never meshed into a strong defensive unit.
Beard has publicly expressed discontent with his team's defensive effort all season. This has led to him mish-mashing lineups all season, benching some of his best players and constantly tinkering.
11 different players have started games this season, with French point guard Ilias Kamardine being the only player to start in each contest.
Offensively this team is reliant on a lot of self creation, and ends up taking a lot of tough 2s. Ole Miss is last in the SEC and bottom five in the country in average 2-point attempt distance.
Beard has been frustrated with, yet simultaneously relies heavily on journeyman AJ Storr, who’s had an up and down season. He’s functioned as a sixth man for this team in SEC play, but as the team's premier bucket getter, he ends up shooting a ton and having some big games.
Dia was awesome last season, but he's had an up and down year, as well. He only scored in double figures twice in an eight game stretch from mid-January to mid-February, but he's found a rhythm again as of late. He’s scored 20 or more points on solid efficiency in four of his last five games.
These teams met a little over a month ago in Nashville, and Vandy held on late for a 71-68 victory. The Dores were in control for the majority of the game, leading by 13 with under six minutes to play. They did this without the services of Miles.
Ole Miss can neutralize a couple of Vandy’s strengths by slowing the game down to a half-court pace and taking care of the ball. The Rebels only turned the ball over 11 times in that first matchup on the road and are the second best team in the league (after Vandy) in turnover rate.
However, Ole Miss’ season is basically dead, and Vandy is clearly the much better unit. Vandy is reeling a bit and could really use this win on the road, so I expect it to get it done based on the fact that it was successful last time and now have Miles to help make the half-court offensive attack more dynamic.
For my prop people: Malik Dia unders are worth a look here. Okereke and McGlockton can really move their feet and are good matchups for him. He scored 16 last time against Vandy (albeit on poor efficiency) and only played 24 minutes because of defensive reasons.
I’ll lay the points with the fellas in black and gold on the road.
My Pick: Vanderbilt -7 (Play to -8)
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