The way Georgia has jumped on teams early is staggering.
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Georgia looks to move to 5-0 when they welcome Vanderbilt as 24.5-point favorites on Saturday afternoon.
My Vanderbilt vs. Georgia prediction focuses on the Bulldogs’ suffocating defense, while also factoring in their tendency to take their foot off the gas in the second half.
Read on for my college football picks ahead of Oct. 3, with kickoff set for 12:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Georgia might be the best team in college football and should win this game comfortably. That said, I’m hesitant to lay this many points with Alabama waiting on deck next week.
The Bulldogs have blitzed opponents from the opening whistle this season, and then called off the Dawgs (pun intended) in the fourth quarter.
Opposing QBs have posted a 144.4 QBR in the final period, a big reason Georgia’s dominant defense ranks in the 12th percentile in explosive passes allowed.
This is a spot where Vanderbilt, which has shown itself to be a better second-half team, presents a legitimate backdoor cover threat.
Take the points, up to 54%.
I expect the Bulldogs to do what they want on the ground. Vanderbilt’s defense ranks 85th in EPA/rush, and the defense can’t get stops on third down.
Opponents are averaging 6.57 yards per rush on third downs when needing three yards or fewer. That’s bad news against a Georgia offense ranked second in average third-down distance.
The Bulldogs lead the nation by a wide margin with 0.867 points per play, so they’ll carry much of this total.
Add in Vandy’s aforementioned garbage-time points, and this one will clear the number.
Play it up to 53%.
Just one of the seven touchdowns allowed by the Dawgs has come before halftime, and through four games, opponents have run a total of 15 offensive plays with the game tied.
That’s what happens when your defense ranks fourth in available yards allowed and has conceded just 16 yards on 24 rushing attempts inside their own 40-yard line.
Vandy trailed Delaware at halftime and has scored just 10 first-half points in two games vs. power conference foes — not to mention QB Jared Curtis is now questionable.
Take the Dawgs up to 55% to be up big at the break.
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
It could be a long afternoon in Athens. Temps will be in the high 80s at kickoff, but thunderstorms could delay proceedings before finally giving way to sunshine after 3 p.m. ET.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Georgia has covered the 1H Spread in 10 of its last 14 games (+5.30 Units / 34% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. Georgia.
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Jason has been hooked on football since watching Real Madrid and Manchester United in the 2003 Champions League, and has been betting on the sport for nearly 15 years. He has given soccer gambling and fantasy advice for nearly a decade, writing for sites including Rotowire, SB Nation, and The TwinSpires Edge.
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