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The Vanderbilt Commodores take on the Florida Gators in Nashville, Tennessee. Tip-off is set for 1:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN.
Florida is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -400. The total is set at 160.5 points.
Here’s my Vanderbilt vs. Florida prediction and college basketball picks for March 14, 2026.
My Pick: Vanderbilt +7 or Better
My Vanderbilt vs Florida best bet is on the Commodores to cover. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
I project the Commodores as 3.8-point underdogs against Florida, so I’m looking to bet them at +7 or better, representing a minimum three-point difference between my projection and the market.
It’s worth noting that the SEC Tournament is being held in Nashville, giving the Commodores a significant home-court advantage.
Vanderbilt took Florida to the wire the last time these two met in Nashville, with Florida pulling out a tough four-point win.
The Gators dominated the boards and will again have a massive frontcourt and physicality advantage. But the Commodores went bucket-for-bucket on the other end, with Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner dominating in ball-screen actions — Florida’s three-big lineup can be vulnerable against elite dribble orchestrators.
I expect a similar result on Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised if Vandy pulled off the upset, given ShotQuality graded that first matchup as a four-point Commodore win based on the “quality” of shots taken by both teams.
My Pick: Vanderbilt +7 or Better
Tanner McGrath covers college basketball, college football and Major League Baseball at Action Network. He is a contributor to Payoff Pitch, Action Network’s Major League Baseball betting podcast. He's been working in the space for more than five years with past journalism experience in Canadian collegiate sports, finance and economics. He has an obsession with America East basketball, betting the Miami Marlins and sweating out home underdogs.
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