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By Chris Amberley in College Basketball
Published:
The clock is ticking on the college basketball regular season, as just over a week remains until the big-time conference championship tournaments tip off. One of the teams who will be in contention for the SEC title is #25 Vanderbilt (22-6, 9-6 SEC), and they visit Kentucky (18-10, 9-6 SEC) this afternoon looking to complete the season sweep.
Online sportsbooks are siding with the Wildcats in the latest college basketball odds, pegging them as short home chalk. I disagree, as Vanderbilt’s defense and Kentucky’s recent form make the Commodores my preferred side.
The action gets underway at 2:00 pm ET from Rupp Arena, in Lexington, KY, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Here are my Vanderbilt vs Kentucky picks and predictions for the Feb. 28 showdown.
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Vandy roared out of the gates this season winning their first 16 games. Since then, they’ve posted a 6-6 mark in their last 12 SEC contests, although four of those losses have come by 4 points or loss. Back-to-back razor thin defeats last week to Tennessee and Missouri sting, but this is still a program with major upside in the NCAA Tournament champion odds.
That ceiling was evident in the first meeting between these two teams, as the Commodores ran the Wildcats out of the gym with an 80-55 victory. The win was their biggest over UK since 2008, and it highlighted Kentucky’s biggest issues. This is a team that struggles to shoot the ball, has underwhelming guard play, and doesn’t get to the free throw line.
The Wildcats shot just 32% from the field versus Vandy, and 25% from three. They turned the ball over 15 times, with the Commodores posting 9 blocks. Kentucky’s offense has been even further stuck in the mud recently, ranking 96th in offensive efficiency and 301st in two-point field goal percentage over the last two weeks.
That’s problematic versus Vanderbilt, who boast the third best defense in the SEC, and rank 34th in opponent effective field goal percentage. The Commodores are one of the top teams at preventing enemy assists, ranking 19th, and force the 27th most turnovers in college basketball. Their interior defense is also excellent, as UK found it in Round 1, as Vandy blocks the 17th most shots in the nation.
At the other end of the court, the metrics favor the Commodores as well. Vanderbilt ranks 9th in points per game, 10th in assist to turnover margin, and 29th in effective field goal percentage. They’re also top-35 in generating extra possessions, and racked up 13 offensive boards in their first outing versus the Wildcats.
Sophomore Tyler Tanner has made a major leap in his second season, recently cracking ESPN’s list of the top-25 surprising stars. He enters play averaging 22.4 points and 6 assists in conference play, and can find major success in the pick and roll game versus an underwhelming Kentucky defense.
Vandy’s 6’0 Tyler Tanner is continuing his breakout sophomore season thru conference play, averaging 22.4 PPG and 6.1 APG since SEC play has begun
Elite speed in transition, not only is he getting to the cup at will, he’s generating nearly 8 FT’s per game and has scored 31 PPG… pic.twitter.com/S3RRuzBwoo
In addition to Tanner, Tyler Nickel is a force in transition averaging 1.34 points per possession when Vandy runs, and the Commodores will have Duke Miles back after he missed the first matchup with UK. Miles is the team’s second leading scorer, averaging over 16 points per game, and is also one Vandy’s best three-point shooting threats.
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Another reason to be bullish on Vanderbilt, and bearish on UK, is how these teams perform in the opening half. The Commodores are one of the best first half programs in the country, ranking third in scoring, averaging 43.3 points.
Contrast that with Kentucky, who are on the opposite side of the spectrum. UK routinely starts slow, ranking 125th in first-half scoring, and 184th in opponent first-half points per contest.
If you don’t live a state with online sports betting, you can wager on Vanderbilt vs Kentucky at prediction site Kalshi, where Kentucky to win is trading at 53 (meaning a 47 profit on every contract if Kentucky wins) and Vandy to win is trading at 49 (meaning a 51 profit on every contract if Vandy wins).
That Kentucky price is equivalent to a -113 moneyline in traditional American odds, while Vandy’s price is the same as a +104 moneyline.
Kalshi also has spread and game-total markets available. New users can click the graphic above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
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