BOX SCORE STATS: 13.5 PTS, 3.3 REB (0.6o), 1.2 AST to 0.7 TOV, 0.8 STL, 0.5 BLK, 1.4 PF in 30.6 MINS over 36 games on 44.5 FG% / 58.2 2P% / 40.0 3P% / 84.7 FT%
ADVANCED STATS: 6.6 BPM, 16.9 USG%, 61.7 TS%, 2.5 OREB%, 9.6 DREB%, 1.7 A/TO, 6.9 AST%, 8.0 TOV%, 1.4 STL%, 1.9 BLK%, 16.1 FTr, 72.9 3Pr, 14.2 3P/100
Height w/o shoes: 6-foot-6
Wingspan: 6-foot-8½
Standing reach: 8-foot-6½
Weight: 217 pounds
Standing vertical: 26 inches
Max vertical: 34 inches
Tyler Nickel had a solid season, averaging 13.5 PTS, 3.3 REB (0.6 OREB), 1.2 AST with 0.7 TOV, 0.8 STL and 0.5 BLK on 44.5/40.0/84.7 splits as a movement shooter on an impressive and fun Vanderbilt team. His range is probably anywhere from 35 to 55, with teams that need shooting taking a long look at him because there are not a ton of pure shooters in that range.
If Nickel ever becomes an NBA player, it will be because of his shooting. As one of the best pure shooters in this class, Nickel has made around 40% of his three-point shots over the last three seasons, which points to reliable efficiency over a large enough sample. Nickel’s shooting form is incredibly compact, and his release is very repeatable.
One thing that stands out about the path of his shot is that after a slight dip to the right side of his body, he likes to release in the middle or even slightly left of his body, potentially to avoid closeouts. His go-to footwork is the one-two, which gives him the option to put the ball on the floor and attack closeouts. He can also hop into his shot and get his feet set quickly when he needs to speed up the release.
As a standout movement shooter, the Vanderbilt sniper has very clean and repeatable footwork and can square up as he catches, so he is usually on balance upon release. He is constantly moving along the three-point line, relocating and keeping passing windows open.
Because of his ability to knock down movement threes at a high clip, Nickel can be used in all sorts of movement actions. Vanderbilt spammed the Tanner-Nickel PnP, with Nickel ghosting the screen and popping out to the three-point line while Tanner could get downhill or kick out to Nickel if there was any miscommunication.
One main test for elite shooters is their ability to attack closeouts, and Nickel can definitely do some of that. The Commodore can sidestep into a pull-up three if the closeout is very aggressive, although he is not a pull-up shot creator by any stretch. He can also attack closeouts with a soft floater or pull-up midrange, which he converted at decent efficiency, going 26/55, or 47.3%, on midrange shots. He does not take those shots at a high volume, but you can clearly see the touch as a shooter.
The Vanderbilt sniper does not really get all the way to the rim, even when his shooting gravity gives him an initial advantage, sometimes looking unwilling to challenge rim protectors as a below-the-rim finisher with limited vertical pop. He only attempted 36 shots at the rim in 36 games this year, which is extremely low for a 6’6” wing. He is also not a great cutter, but that could improve with NBA spacing.
Nickel is also a decent connective passer who will make simple passes and keep the offense flowing. Most of his passes are uncreative but turnover-averse. There is not a high ceiling here, as he is neither going to be a secondary ballhandler like Luke Kennard, who can make some pick-and-roll reads, nor a great standstill passing connector like Alex Karaban.
On defense, Nickel has decent size, testing at 6’6” barefoot with a 6’8.5” wingspan. He has a pretty strong chest that he can use to cut off drives, and he probably has the strength to deal with some NBA 3s or 4s. Despite some athletic concerns, Nickel fights and plays hard on the defensive end, is mostly in the right spot, constantly makes hustle plays and gives multiple efforts. This alone gives him some chance to stick in the NBA defensively.
However, his defensive footwork is a concern, as he is very reactive and has no chance to survive switching onto shifty guards until his defensive footwork improves. He is also not a very good screen navigator, so it is unclear if you can hide him on shooters. Despite these limitations, there is a way to hide him schematically on defense in some matchups because he has size, strength and a good understanding of where to be.
To wrap up, Tyler Nickel can carve out an NBA career as an elite movement shooter similar to AJ Green, Sam Hauser or Julian Champagnie, especially if he can improve his perimeter defense, particularly his footspeed and footwork. While there are some other elite movement shooters in this draft, the big separator for Nickel as an NBA prospect is his size, strength and toughness on defense.
My theory with elite shooters is that if you can do one more thing besides shooting, there is a good chance you become a solid NBA player. Luke Kennard has secondary creation. Sam Hauser has size and defense. Julian Champagnie has size and rebounding. Landry Shamet had defense. The easiest route for Nickel is size and defense, but there is also a real chance he is a better rebounder than the numbers indicate.
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