Three Matchups to Watch: Vanderbilt at Mississippi State – The Vanderbilt Hustler

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Vanderbilt (3-5, 0-5 SEC) comes off its bye week still looking for its first victory in conference play this season. Two weeks removed from a 34-17 loss against No. 8 Kentucky, the Commodores may be looking at their best chance to finally pick up an SEC win before the season comes to a close. 
Mississippi State boasts a 15-7-2 all-time record over Vanderbilt, including a five-game winning streak since 2008. The Bulldogs had a rough October, during which they lost 4-0, lost several key starters to injury and slid from playoff aspirations to fighting for bowl eligibility. Both programs would benefit immensely from a victory this week to regain some confidence in the final stretch of the season. Vanderbilt has a 26.3% chance of winning in Starkville, Mississippi, per ESPN. The Hustler breaks down three key matchups that will help determine Saturday’s winner. 
Junior Sherrill has been one of the few bright spots for the Commodore offense this season, sitting in the top three in both receptions and yards among SEC receivers. He is coming off back-to-back eight-catch performances against Arkansas and Kentucky, and will look to continue the streak against a Mississippi State defense that is allowing the 11th- most passing yards per game in FBS. 
Despite its poor performance this season, the Bulldogs’ defense possesses a few impact players that could make life difficult for Sherrill. Senior cornerback Kelley Jones, who is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2027 NFL draft, leads the defense. Jones, who stands at 6’4, uses his size and length to stick to receivers and prevent catches. When not guarded by Jones, Sherrill will also have to match up with Jett Jefferson, a former junior college transfer who has broken out with eight passes defended this season. 
However, Sherrill has shown many times this season that he is more than capable of succeeding in these types of matchups. Against Power 4 opponents, he has racked up at least 6 receptions and 75 yards in all but one game, and has by far been Jared Curtis’ favorite and most reliable target. Additionally, his deep threat ability will add another element to the game against a Bulldogs’ defense that ranks 16th amongst Power 4 schools in explosive pass play rate allowed. If the Commodores want to win their first SEC game of the season, Curtis and Sherrill will need to form an early connection and take advantage of a vulnerable Mississippi State passing defense. 
The Bulldogs find themselves shorthanded at quarterback entering this weekend’s battle against the Commodores. With Kamario Taylor undergoing season-ending surgery on his toe, redshirt freshman Parker Puckett originally received the nod to play under center. The young signal-caller started in the Bulldogs’ contest against LSU and played in most of the loss to Oklahoma as well. Across those two games, Puckett completed 66% of his pass attempts for 279 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions along with rushing for 77 yards on 18 carries.  
In the Bulldogs’ Oct. 31 matchup with Texas, Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby opted to go a different route, starting AJ Swann against the Longhorns. Swann, a former Commodore himself, passed for 97 yards with a completion rate of 80% before suffering a right shoulder injury in the second quarter. He is now considered day-to-day.  
Given the tumultuous state of Mississippi State’s quarterback room, the Vanderbilt defensive line, coordinated by Steve Gregory and anchored by sixth-year edge Miles Capers, will have an opportunity to feast on the Bulldogs’ inexperience through aggressive pressure and creative blitz packages. The question is whether the Commodores will be successful in doing so, as Vanderbilt’s defense was allowing the highest opposing offensive success rate in the SEC and ranked dead last in the SEC in tackles for loss rate going into their Oct. 24 matchup with Kentucky.  
Although the Commodores come into the battle in Starkville averaging two sacks and one turnover forced per contest, the defensive front will have to fire on all cylinders if Vanderbilt wants to win. By using pressure to force hurried throws and negative plays on early downs, the Commodores could keep the Bulldogs behind the chains and force difficult third-down situations, an area that Vanderbilt’s defensive unit has struggled with.  
The Commodores and Bulldogs aren’t exactly role models when it comes to executing the little details. Over the course of eight games, Vanderbilt has committed the most penalties in the SEC (70), while Mississippi State is tied for third (61). The Bulldogs have lost 564 yards to penalties — the second most in the SEC — or 70.5 yards per game, while the Commodores have accumulated 530 lost yards of penalties, good for 66.3 yards per game.    
Vanderbilt has particularly struggled to remain composed, resulting in sloppy and undisciplined play. The Commodores’ matchup against Ole Miss is a perfect demonstration of that, with offensive lineman Clinton Azubike punching a Rebel in the first quarter and defensive lineman Jaylon Stone headbutting an Ole Miss player just one quarter later.  
For two squads in the middle of rebuilding, these controllable mistakes can make or break games. Careless holding penalties can ruin a great offensive drive, or on the flip side, completely wipe away valiant defensive stands. The team that can better manage its play, discipline and emotions on the field will have an advantage, especially when considering that the skill gap between Vanderbilt and Mississippi State is relatively small. 
The Commodores will go head-to-head with Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium Saturday, Nov. 7, at 3:15 p.m. CST.  
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