Three Keys and a Prediction: Vanderbilt Basketball vs. McNeese – Sports Illustrated

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OKLAHOMA CITY—-Time for Vanderbilt basketball to put on its dancing shoes and pioneer a magical run unlike what this program has in recent memory. 
Now, it's time to deal with being the hunted as No. 12 seed McNeese runs up on the Commodores believing that it can win. Vanderbilt knows what McNeese has, too, and isn't overlooking it.
They're a really good team,” Vanderbilt big man Jalen Washington told Vandy on SI. “Once you get to this point, you're just facing high level teams, right? There's no more easy games. 
And so with them, they play really hard, they play fast, they pressure a lot.”
Here's three keys to a Vanderbilt basketball win and a prediction as to whether it will advance or not.
Don’t let turnovers and pace be the story
If they are, then McNeese is likely winning this thing and on the way to a Round of 32 tilt. The Cowboys have to have that be the case if they’re going to win on Thursday.
McNeese is No. 1 in the country in defensive turnover rate, No. 2 in offensive turnover rate and can shorten a game with its tempo—which is ranked No. 246 in the country. 
That makes it dangerous. Luckily for Vanderbilt, it hasn’t struggled with turnovers much this season and has seen athletes that surpass what McNeese overwhelms midmajor teams with. 
Make McNeese win on the 3-point line
If McNeese can’t win off of winning the turnover battle and getting downhill, the odds it’s going to beat Vanderbilt aren’t all that high. 
McNeese is ranked No. 299 in the country in 3-point rate and has just one qualified shooter ranked nationally in 3-point range by KenPom. If the numbers are any indicator, McNeese isn’t going to light Vanderbilt up from 3-point range.
Vanderbilt doesn’t have to worry all that much about that aspect of this potential upset. 
Vanderbilt just needs to be Vanderbilt like it was in the SEC Tournament 
Vanderbilt shouldn’t be worried all that much if it’s going to play like it did at Bridgestone Arena. The question is whether it can keep its positive trajectory now that it’s in Oklahoma City. 
McNeese is an excellent program that has high-major caliber athletes on the floor at all times, but they shouldn’t exceed Vanderbilt’s athleticism. Mark Byington’s team is still the most talented team on the floor, too.
It just can’t be the team that it was for a lot of the second half of league play.
Prediction: Vanderbilt: 78, McNeese: 69
It feels like McNeese may get its way in terms of how it wants this thing to be played for a little bit, but it doesn’t appear to have the profile of a Cinderella team that can catch fire and win that way. Vanderbilt just has to take care of the ball and be sound defensively.
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Joey Dwyer is the lead writer on Vanderbilt Commodores On SI. He found his first love in college sports at nearby Lipscomb University and decided to make a career of telling its best stories. He got his start doing a Notre Dame basketball podcast from his basement as a 14-year-old during COVID and has since aimed to make that 14-year-old proud. Dwyer has covered Vanderbilt sports for three years and previously worked for 247 Sports and Rivals. He contributes to Seth Davis' Hoops HQ, Basket Under Review and Mainstreet Nashville.
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