Free agency opened to all 30 teams on Monday evening, officially kicking off the bidding for Tarik Skubal. The first few days of the offseason have been characteristically slow throughout the entire market, but there’s been early speculation about the landing spot for the top free agent.
Much of the attention has unsurprisingly focused on the Mets and Dodgers, generally viewed as the two likeliest Skubal destinations. Jon Heyman of The New York Post wrote on Wednesday that the Mets are indeed interested in making a run, though he cautioned they haven’t yet determined how far they’re willing to go in the bidding two years into the record-setting Juan Soto contract.
New York also has needs at the back of the bullpen and around their infield. The Dodgers are more well set up for luxury buys. They’ll need to re-sign or replace a few leverage relievers (Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen and Kris Bubic) and could poke around the second base market for an upgrade on Tommy Edman and Alex Freeland. They’re much better positioned than the Mets in prioritizing a handful of targets rather than addressing various roster needs.
Both clubs have generally preferred massive annual commitments over long-term deals for pitchers. They were willing to make an exception for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whose 12-year contract started in his age-25 season. The Dodgers went to five years on Blake Snell and have otherwise kept their free agent rotation moves fairly short. The Mets have yet to sign a pitcher (or any non-Soto free agent) for more than three years in their first three offseasons with David Stearns atop baseball operations.
Could that open the possibility for another team to jump in with a long-term offer? ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote on Monday that the Cubs will be in on Skubal but could balk at an asking price expected to be well in excess of $300MM. Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has already declared this offseason to be focused mostly on pitching.
Entering the offseason, the Cubs’ projected $168.9MM luxury tax number for 2027 (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Ethan Hullihen) is almost $100MM south of where they ended the ’26 season. They should have the payroll space to make a realistic push, but the Cubs still have yet to sign a player for more than the $184MM Jason Heyward contract over a decade ago. Skubal could command more than twice that amount. Their organizational history would point more toward the likes of Trevor Rogers, Michael King or Freddy Peralta as their big rotation move, but the Heyward contract isn’t going to stand as the franchise record forever.
While a lot of clubs balk at long-term deals for free agent pitchers, that hasn’t really been a concern of the Yankees. They’re signed Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Max Fried on deals ranging from six to nine years going back to the 2019-20 offseason. All three contracts have worked out nicely to this point. They’re generally viewed as a longer shot on Skubal because they’re one of the few teams that doesn’t need a starting pitcher, but that doesn’t entirely rule them out.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote this week that the Yankees would at least consider a Skubal push with the ability to subsequently trade from the rotation (presumably one or two of Ryan Weathers, Will Warren and Clarke Schmidt) if they landed the two-time Cy Young winner. There’s a decent chance the Yanks move one of those starters anyway given their need to upgrade the position player group — most likely at one of second or third base or behind the plate.
McDaniel also suggested the Tigers are likely to keep tabs on their longtime ace in case there’s an opportunity to land Skubal at a discounted rate. That seems highly unlikely given the number of big-market clubs who’ll have him at or near the top of their wishlists. It’s aligned with how the Tigers have approached the rotation market under president of baseball operations Scott Harris, however.
Detroit pounced on a three-year deal at a massive $38.333MM average annual value when Framber Valdez went unsigned into February last offseason. They had a similar but less costly pickup when Jack Flaherty lingered on the market one year earlier. There’s a low probability of Skubal going that route. (Speculatively, former rotation mate Casey Mize would make sense for a reunion on a two- or three-year deal with an opt-out after an ugly post-deadline showing in San Diego.)
We’re still in the preliminary stages, but Skubal’s market should heat up quickly. There are three and a half weeks until the inevitable December 1 lockout. Next week’s GM Meetings figure to take on more importance this winter than in most years. Heyman wrote on Thursday evening that some people in the industry expect Skubal to come off the board early.
