Scoring touchdowns against Georgia isn’t easy.
In fact, the Bulldogs have been one of the best teams in college football at keeping opposing offenses away from the end zone entirely.
But once opponents get within Georgia’s 20-yard line, they’re have a lot more success than what the Bulldogs’ dominant defensive stats would suggest.
Through eight games, Georgia has allowed opponents to reach the red zone just 17 times. That’s barely more than two opportunities per game, which is remarkable considering who it has faced this season.
However, the notable part for Ole Miss is that opponents have scored touchdowns on 12 of those 17 possessions, a 70.6% success rate. They’ve come away with points on 15 of them, or 88.2% of their red zone trips.
Now consider what Ole Miss has done offensively.
The Rebels have driven within the red zone 31 times this season and scored on 30 of those opportunities. Even more impressive, 26 of those possessions have resulted in touchdowns.
That’s an 83.9% touchdown rate, making Ole Miss one of the nation’s most efficient offenses when it gets inside the opponent’s 20.
It’s also a potentially important advantage in a game that could have enormous consequences for the Rebels’ College Football Playoff hopes.
Of course, there’s a rather significant problem with the idea of exploiting Georgia’s red-zone defense.
Ole Miss has to actually get there.
Georgia is allowing just 273.4 yards and 14.9 points per game. Opponents are averaging only 86.8 rushing yards, and the Bulldogs have recorded 26 sacks.
Simply putting together sustained drives against this defense is a challenge, much less advancing far enough to create scoring opportunities.
That’s what makes Saturday’s matchup particularly interesting.
Ole Miss has been remarkably consistent at finishing drives throughout the season. Against Vanderbilt, the Rebels scored touchdowns on all four red-zone possessions. They followed that with three touchdowns and a field goal in four opportunities against Missouri.
Against Auburn last Saturday, Ole Miss scored on all five trips inside the 20, including four touchdowns.
But there’s one notable exception that should interest Georgia about that stretch.
In the loss to Texas, the Rebels reached the red zone only twice and scored on one of those opportunities.
That game demonstrated how quickly an offense’s scoring potential can disappear when facing a defense capable of keeping further away from the end zone.
The Bulldogs present an even tougher challenge.
Georgia’s defensive statistics suggest Ole Miss shouldn’t expect many chances to score touchdowns Saturday night.
But the Rebels have demonstrated that when they get those chances, they’re exceptionally good at taking advantage.
That’s an encouraging matchup for Ole Miss, provided it can consistently move the football against one of the nation’s best defenses.
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