Notre Dame vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 – Sports Illustrated

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One of the more anticipated Sweet 16 matchups in the 2026 Women’s NCAA Tournament takes place on Friday afternoon, as the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on the No. 2 Vanderbilt Commodores. 
Hannah Hidalgo and the Fighting Irish knocked off No. 3 Ohio State in the second round, and they’re looking to pull off another upset to advance to the Elite 8. Hidalgo has been terrific in the 2025-26 season, and Notre Dame is peaking at the right time, winning nine of its last 10 games. 
Vanderbilt has only lost four games this season: once to South Carolina, twice to Ole Miss and once to Georgia. Shea Ralph’s group also beat No. 1 Texas by 16 points during SEC play. 
The Commodores dominated the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, beating High Point by 41 before knocking off Illinois by 18. 
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Sweet 16 matchup. 
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Spread
Moneyline
Total
The Fighting Irish are going to go as far as Hidalgo takes them, and the superstar guard had a massive showing in the second round against Ohio State, putting up 26 points, 13 rebounds, two assists and eight steals.
Hidalgo is one of the most active defenders in the country, averaging 5.6 steals per game. On offense, she leads the Fighting Irish in points per game (25.2) and assists per game (5.2) while also pulling down 6.7 rebounds per game (tied for the team lead).
Notre Dame has lost 10 games this season, but a guard like Hidalgo could swing this one in the Fighting Irish’s favor. She’s a big reason why Notre Dame is just a 5.5-point underdog in this matchup. 
Vanderbilt certainly has a more impressive resume between these two teams, but both squads have struggled on the defensive end.
Notre Dame ranks 266th in opponent effective field goal percentage despite being 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Commodores are 253rd in opponent eFG% and 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Notre Dame’s ability to force turnovers (33rd in the country in opponent turnover rate) has been a major equalizer this season, but it won’t be easy against a Vandy offense that is 18th in turnover rate and sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency. 
The Commodores have some interesting losses to Ole Miss and George this season, and I think Notre Dame’s 3-point shooting (20th in 3-point percentage) and elite guard play with Hidalgo will allow it to hang around in this matchup.
The Fighting Irish do not defend the paint well (270th in opponent 2-point percentage), so I wouldn’t be shocked if Vandy ends up winning this game. Still, I’ll take the points with this spread outside two possessions with one of the best players in the country playing for the underdog.  
Pick: Notre Dame +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.
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