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By Ryan Potts in College Basketball
Published:
With a spot in the Elite Eight on the line, the #6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24-10) face the #2 Vanderbilt Commodores (29-4) in Fort Worth on Friday, March 27. ESPN will carry the broadcast.
Keep reading for my Notre Dame vs Vanderbilt picks as well as the odds for the game. I have given two game predictions in addition to brief tournament histories for both schools.
While the women’s bracket tends to be on the chalkier side, Notre Dame pulled a second-round upset over #3 Ohio State with a 10-point win. Impressively, the Irish fought back from an 11-0 hole to open the game, taking the lead in the second quarter.
Vanderbilt is a step above Ohio State this season, but the Commodores do not get the benefit of playing at home as the Buckeyes did. Vandy went undefeated at home, but the Commodores sustained a pair of neutral-site losses to Ole Miss.
Notably, I do not need Notre Dame to win outright (although I would not be opposed to sprinkling a bet at the current +192 moneyline price on Caesars). I am backing the Irish to make enough shots, especially their free throws, to stay within +5.5 and cover the spread.
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Both teams are among the best offenses in the country, and neither have a true offensive weakness. Notre Dame is the lesser of the two offenses, and the Irish have the No. 30 offensive rating in the country. Notre Dame is top-20 in efficiency from the field, from the three-point line, and from the free-throw line. Both Notre Dame tournament games have exceeded this total.
Vanderbilt’s win over Illinois was a surprisingly low-scoring affair, but Vandy has a top-10 offensive both by raw points per game and offensive rating. The Commodores cracked 100 points in their first-round game, and they average north of 84 points per game on the season.
Both teams are in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed per game and defensive rating. With two explosive offenses and two mediocre defenses, I expect the over to cash in this Sweet 16 showdown.
The leading scorer in the ACC, Hannah Hidalgo has averaged 25.2 points per game this season. She has eight 30-point games on the season, maxing out with a hefty 44-point effort against Akron. Her most recent 30-burger came on March 1 versus Louisville. Hidalgo has averaged 24.5 points per game in March Madness.
Sacha Washington is averaging 10.4 points per game and 7.8 rebounds per game. The forward has eight games with double-digits rebounds, recording seven double-doubles. In Vandy’s first-round win over High Point, Washington had 10 points and a whopping 17 rebounds.
Vanderbilt is favored in this neutral-site affair. Vanderbilt bettors should take the Commodores at -205 on the moneyline at DraftKings or -5.5 ATS, also at DraftKings (-102 odds). Notre Dame bettors should take the Fighting Irish at 30¢ at Kalshi, which is equal to a +223 moneyline price (or +192 at Caesars if you don’t live in a Kalshi region). Notre Dam’s best ATS price is +5.5 +113 at Kalshi (or -105 at BetMGM).
The total is set at 151.5 points. Traditional sportsbooks have -110 odds both ways across the board. Kalshi has the juice slightly lower at -108.
Notre Dame was a perennial powerhouse under legendary coach Muffet McGraw, winning March Madness in 2001 and 2018, adding to seven other Final Four appearances. Since McGraw retired, Notre Dame has been a Sweet 16 mainstay, with 2026 marking the school’s fifth-straight appearance.
However, Niele Ivey’s Irish have yet to advance to Elite Eight in her six seasons at the helm. However, she won the National Championship with the Irish back in 2001 (as a player) and 2018 (as an assistant).
Vanderbilt is in its 15th Sweet 16, its first since 2009. Previously, Vanderbilt has five trips to the Elite Eight and one Final Four trip (1993). Vanderbilt has lost its last four Sweet 16 matches, losing in 2004, 2005, 2008, and 2009.
Vanderbilt’s head coach, Shea Ralph, is a seven-time National Champion, winning the 2000 title as a player and six titles as a UConn assistant.
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Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, bombine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
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