Scouts from at least seven teams were on hand to watch Clay Holmes‘ latest rehab start with the Mets, per Will Sammon, Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic. The Rays, Phillies, Rangers, D-backs, White Sox, Dodgers and old friend Yankees all had personnel on hand. The Athletic report cites a pair of executives from other clubs who said Holmes looked ready to return to the majors in that outing. Holmes indeed posted sharp results, albeit against High-A competition. He held Blue Jays’ Dunedin affiliate scoreless on two hits and two walks with three punchouts. Opponents put ten balls in play against Holmes; eight of them were grounders.
That type of grounder-heavy approach is par for the course with Holmes, whose bread and butter is a 93-94 mph sinker. Dating back to 2021, when Holmes established himself as a big leaguer, his 62.4% ground-ball rate leads all pitchers (starters and relievers alike) who’ve thrown 400 or more innings.
A comebacker early this season struck Holmes on the leg, fracturing his fibula and sending him to the injured list for more than two months. It’s one of many things to go wrong for the Mets in a Murphy’s Law season. The big 6’5″, 245-pound righty is playing out the second season of a three-year, $38MM deal the Mets gave him in the 2024-25 offseason. The Mets successfully converted Holmes, who’d been a high-leverage reliever across town in the Bronx, back to a starter. He’s pitched 218 1/3 innings over 40 starts (and three relief outings), logging a 3.26 ERA with an 18.9% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 55.8% grounder rate as a Met.
Holmes might not make another start for the Mets organization. He’s technically signed through next season, but the final year of his contract is a player option. Given the way he’s pitched since signing in Queens, he’ll have no problem topping the $12MM value of next year’s option in free agency, so long as he’s healthy. The Mets, one of the game’s clearest sellers, should be able to command a decent return in a trade. They could always hold onto Holmes and issue him a qualifying offer if and when he declines that player option, but since the Mets are luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round of next year’s draft. They should do better than that in a trade.
Holmes, of course, is one of multiple starters the Mets are likely to deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Mets have indeed chatted with the Brewers about a trade sending Freddy Peralta back to Milwaukee, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported yesterday. Momentum has yet to build on a Milwaukee/Peralta reunion though, per Heyman. He adds that several clubs are in the mix for Peralta — some of them believing that a the move to the Mets (and a porous defense) are more to blame for Peralta’s struggles than a deterioration in his skill set.
Peralta, who turned 30 in early June, had a solid if unremarkable start to his Mets tenure. From Opening Day through June 3, he took the ball 13 times and gave the Mets a 3.63 ERA with a sharp 23.9% strikeout rate. His 9.7% walk rate was up a bit from his typical levels but not egregiously north of the 8.9% league average.
Since June 9, Peralta has started nine times. He’s completed five frames in only four of those nine outings and has only completed six frames once. His ERA in that time is an unsightly 7.34. Peralta’s walk rate has actually improved a slight bit (8.9% in this span), but his strikeout rate has dropped nearly five percentage points and he’s served up an untenable average of 1.73 homers per nine innings. There’s no obvious degradation in his stuff. Peralta’s 94.5 mph average fastball over those nine trips is actually a bit better than his early-season marks. He’s backed off his changeup slightly in favor of more curveballs and sliders, but it’s only a minor shift in usage rates.
Peralta has mixed in a pair of decent starts against the Cubs and Braves during this stretch, but seven of his past nine outings have been clunkers. He’s an impending free agent with a big track record and a relatively small $8MM salary though, so there’ll still be interest. As of this writing, there’s about $2.5MM of his salary yet to be paid out.
While Holmes, Peralta and the rest of the Mets’ rentals (e.g. Brooks Raley, A.J. Minter, Tyrone Taylor) seem like locks to change teams, there will be tougher calls on others. That includes both of the Mets’ catchers: Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torrens.
Heyman and colleague Joel Sherman write that Alvarez has garnered some interest, but moving him isn’t any kind of focus for the Mets. There’d be a steep price, too, given the 24-year-old’s remaining three seasons of club control beyond the current one. Alvarez is 1-for-2 with a double in today’s game, bumping his season line to .264/.342/.455. He’s making just $2.4MM as a Super Two player and will have three more arbitration raises coming before he reaches free agency in the 2029-30 offseason.
There’s an uncommon level of demand for catching help this summer, and the market offers very little in the way of supply. The Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Rangers and Angels are all looking for a catcher. The Yanks specifically want a right-handed-hitting catcher. The Rangers have minimal payroll flexibility and would need someone who’s inexpensive. The Angels are hoping to add a controllable catcher who could solidify the position long term. Alvarez would check all of those boxes.
Granted, injuries have sidelined Alvarez frequently in recent seasons, and that injury history could give clubs some pause. He missed nearly a month earlier this season following surgery to repair some meniscus damage in his right knee but was able to return in under a month. He’s previously had surgeries on both thumbs and has also suffered a hamate fracture in the past. It hasn’t slowed down Alvarez’s bat. He popped 25 homers as a 21-year-old in his first full MLB season back in 2023 and has since batted .250/.327/.430 in 857 plate appearances while navigating that litany of injuries. That’s 14% better than league average, by measure of wRC+ — a particularly stout mark considering the standard catcher is about 12% worse than league average by that same metric.
Torrens, 30, is a steady backup. Early in his career, he was regarded as a poor defender but looked like he could still carve out a role in the majors due to his bat; he hit .245/.303/.421 with 16 homers in 456 plate appearances with the Padres and Mariners from 2020-21. The script has since flipped. Torrens’ bat has wilted, but since landing with the Mets ahead of the ’24 season, he’s gone from below-average to elite with the glove. The Mets have honed Torrens’ receiving and blocking while greatly improving his throwing.
The Mets have been so pleased with Torrens’ progression that they signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM extension earlier this year. That covers the 2027-28 seasons, when he’ll make $5.75MM per year. Torrens is only hitting .226/.287/.344 in 610 plate appearances as a Met dating back to 2024, but his defense has still made him a valuable commodity.
Torrens has drawn interest, but Heyman and Sherman suggest the Mets will likely hold onto him. They value his defense and work with the team’s pitching staff, and Mets brass understandably has doubts that a backup catcher making decent money would net them a return of much note. Of course, that doesn’t mean they won’t listen, but as things stand — and with so many other, more pressing trade candidates to discuss — it seems likely that Torrens will stick with the Mets.
