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It’s a common practice to target upsets in the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups when filling out your March Madness brackets.
The disparity is misleading, as these games are usually coin flippers, and they’re where the most upsets occur in the first round of the NCAA Tournament: At least one 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed in 34 of the last 40 tournaments.
In fact, the 5-seed has fallen in two of the four matchups in three of the last four tournaments.
In the South region of this year’s bracket, No. 12 McNeese is an 11.5-point underdog to No. 5 Vanderbilt.
McNeese was also a 12-seed last year when it upset Clemson in the first round.
They’re your classic 12-seed: veteran guards, a defensive identity, elite turnover creatio and pace disruption. The Cowboys lead the nation in defensive turnover rate, forcing them on 25 percent of possessions and producing a plus-7.3.
Vanderbilt, fresh off an 86-75 loss to Arkansas in the SEC Championship game, returns to the tournament after a first-round exit last year.
It hasn’t won a tournament game since 2012.
The Commodores are a healthy offensive team with balanced scoring that hits 79 percent of their free throws.
They rank sixth overall in Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency rates and are easily the stronger in the halfcourt than McNeese, but the Cowboys’ game translates directly to extra possessions and easy transition buckets.
A lot of pressure will be on Duke Miles to consistently initiate Vanderbilt’s relentless ball pressure, especially with how aggressively the Cowboys attack passing lanes and force turnovers.
McNeese is a weak 3-point shooting team, on top of fouling issues.
Believe it or not, I actually think this could help them cover a spread this large since they attack the rim and they don’t rely on streaky shooting.
The Cowboys are Torvik’s 16th overall team in adjusted defensive efficiency, and although they play slow on paper, those forced turnovers can only lead to fast breaks and quick scoring runs.
In other words, look for chaos.
THE PLAY: McNeese +11.5 (-110, bet365)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
