KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. #25 Vanderbilt – On3

Kentucky returns to Rupp Arena on Saturday for a rematch with 25th-ranked Vanderbilt. Vandy won the first run-in in Nashville by 25 points, the Wildcats’ worst game of the SEC slate. The Commodores are a top-25 team in the return trip to Lexington, where Kentucky needs to shake off the Rupp rust from a loss to Georgia and maintain winning momentum off a victory at South Carolina.
KenPom predicts a 78-77 loss for Big Blue on Cawood’s Court. But what does KenPom know? Here at KSR, the staff has its own thoughts about the matchup. Read our predictions in the PARLOUR Pizza Predictions as we count down to Saturday in Rupp Arena.
Two factors are in play here. One, Kentucky plays to its competition, in this case, up. Vandy is a ranked team. And two, the Wildcats should be embarrassed by the 25-point loss to the Commodores earlier this season, so revenge should provide extra motivation on the Kentucky side. UK shouldn’t need any motivation this time of year, but that butt-kicking in January lingers as the biggest blemish on their SEC schedule.
With those in mind, I predict Kentucky wins its second-to-last game in Rupp this season, likely the last victory there this year. Otega Oweh’s bounce-back game will lead all scorers, and the combination of Collin Chandler and Denzel Aberdeen will continue to drill 3s beside him, as the Cats even the score with the Dores.
Score: Kentucky 82, Vanderbilt 78
I refuse to believe Kentucky is as bad as it looked vs. Vanderbilt in Nashville last month. The Cats were jarringly bad in the 25-point loss, taking the Commodores’ punches and simply rolling over. Similarly, I refuse to believe Vanderbilt is as good as it looked. The ‘Dores have lost three of seven since that game, falling to Oklahoma, Missouri, and Tennessee. A team that loses to Oklahoma is not a world-beater.
Tuesday’s performance at South Carolina didn’t exactly inspire confidence, but I think the Cats will come out with fresh life and revenge on their minds after snapping the three-game losing streak. I don’t feel confident about the other games on the schedule (at Texas A&M, Florida), but for some reason, I’m feeling good about this one. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to be proven wrong. That’s just how this season has gone.
Vanderbilt has senior guard Duke Miles back. He missed seven games, including the first meeting in Nashville, after undergoing “clean-up” knee surgery. He scored 27 points off the bench over the last two games. Kentucky will have to account for him. I think the Cats will be eager to prove themselves against an opponent that embarrassed them. Otega Oweh will return to form after an off night in Columbia. The rest of the “big three” (Denzel Aberdeen, Collin Chandler) will do their thing as well.
It’ll be a feel-good Saturday at Rupp, probably the last one of the year as Florida comes to town next week.
Score: Kentucky 83, Vanderbilt 80
Candidly, I have mixed feelings about this game. From a Kentucky standpoint, I think they’re due to play well. They shook off the 3-game losing streak and found a way to win ugly at South Carolina. Coming home to play in front of a charged Rupp Arena crowd is just what the doctor ordered to elevate their play.
However, Vanderbilt is very much the opposite of Kentucky. You never know what to expect from UK. They have a high ceiling, but the floor can bottom out. Vanderbilt is a consistent squad that plays solid, fundamental basketball. They don’t make self-inflicted mistakes. That should travel well. This will be nip-and-tuck to the very end when Captain Clutch delivers one again for Kentucky, injecting hope and optimism into Big Blue Nation.
Score: Kentucky 77, Vanderbilt 75
In the blowout loss to Vanderbilt, Kentucky had a woeful offensive performance that was made worse by allowing Vandy to pour in 10 threes, shoot 25 free throws, and grab 13 offensive rebounds. This is a team that can shoot it, but Mark Byington’s squad is not good on the offensive glass (No. 161 nationally in offensive rebound percentage) and doesn’t exactly live at the line (No. 100 in foul rate) on offense. Those two numbers will come down. UK can’t play any worse on offense. That makes this a very even game.
Turnover differential feels like Vandy’s biggest advantage. Point guard Tyler Tanner is outstanding and will take care of the basketball. Kentucky has had issues valuing possessions and has had a turnover rate of 18 percent or more in each game in this series since Byington arrived. That is where UK could lose this game.
What goes up must come down. Kentucky wins threes and free throws on Saturday. Expect the two-point battle to be fairly even. Where the Cats lose this game is with shot volume if Vandy just wins the math battle because of the turnovers. If UK plays a clean game and keeps turnovers around 10-12, they will lead for most of the afternoon. If that doesn’t happen, UK will be in trouble.
My hunch is that Kentucky has a cleaner offensive plan, the two-point defense gives Vandy some problems, and the home team finds an edge at the free throw line. The Cats add another quality win to their NCAA Tournament resume.
Score: Kentucky 78, Vanderbilt 73
Kentucky’s frontcourt showed up against a smaller South Carolina group. That needs to happen again against a Vanderbilt team that also lacks some size down low. I feel good about a productive game from Malachi Moreno. Still, one of Andrija Jelavić and Mo Dioubate needs to repeat the performances they gave in the win over the Gamecocks. Otega Oweh isn’t going to turn one single-digit performance into two, either.
"Ongoing conversation" but still undecided
What's your section's color, baby?
Will UK avenge early loss to Vandy?
Cats win final road game
by a small number over Vandy.
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It’s the turnovers that worry me. Kentucky has at least a dozen of them in each of its last four games. A 1-to-1 assist/turnover ratio just isn’t going to cut it against Vandy, a group that likes to get out in transition and push the pace. The Commodores — not a turnover-heavy team in its own right — score nearly 15 points per game off turnovers in SEC play. UK has to win that battle to have a real chance.
Revenge should be fully on Kentucky’s mind going into this one. Having it played at Rupp Arena will only help fuel the Wildcats’ positive emotions. I’m going with UK in this one as Collin Chandler hits another clutch shot with under two minutes to play.
Score: Kentucky 82, Vanderbilt 80
The revenge factor is very real here after Kentucky was humiliated on Vanderbilt’s home floor exactly a month ago. Mark Pope should have his players sitting in the film room with the lights off and tape on a loop from now until the opening tip on Saturday, just to drive that feeling home until the Wildcats physically can’t take it anymore. They didn’t just beat us, they punked us — and then said afterward they felt they could expose our toughness. Vanderbilt players said before the season that the Commodores were flat-out better than the Wildcats, no matter how wide the payroll gap.
All of it was embarrassing, and if UK can’t get up for this one with that in mind, this team may be in trouble going into postseason play. I just can’t see that happening.
Now, coming out flat is one thing, but Vandy just being better, hitting more shots and coming up with more stops? That’s on the table, because that five-man group of Tyler Tanner, Duke Miles, Tyler Nickel, Devin McGlockton and AK Okereke is pretty darn good — especially the backcourt. The Commodores boast the No. 12 offense and No. 21 defense in the country with a top-10 offensive turnover rate and a top-15 defensive block rate. They’re more than capable.
I just see Kentucky responding to the challenge and protecting its home floor with a statement win to keep some of its bigger dreams alive in terms of seeding for the SEC and NCAA Tournaments. Give me Collin Chandler with a bounce-back performance after struggling in the first matchup down in Nashville.
Score: Kentucky 79, Vanderbilt 71
Vanderbilt beat Kentucky by 25 points earlier this season. While UK is coming off a win at South Carolina, the Cats still had two bad losses against Georgia and Auburn recently. I’m not ready to pick Kentucky to beat Vandy just yet.
Kentucky will need a big game from the usual suspects of Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen, but will also need the frontcourt to have a great showing. Vanderbilt has also lost two of its last three. With a four-way tie at 9-6 in the SEC, both Kentucky and Vandy have a lot on the line. Kentucky keeps it closer than last matchup, but I’m still picking Vanderbilt to win.
Score: Vanderbilt 81, Kentucky 75
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"Ongoing conversation" but still undecided
What's your section's color, baby?
Will UK avenge early loss to Vandy?
Cats win final road game
by a small number over Vandy.
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