Evaluating Vanderbilt Basketball’s NCAA Tournament Seeding – Sports Illustrated

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A week ago, Vanderbilt was 21-4 and 8-4 in the SEC. The Commodores were squarely in contention for a double-bye spot in the SEC Tournament and were even projected to be a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament by some and no worse than a No. 4 seed by the general consensus of bracketologists.
But two consecutive losses have derailed that. A loss to Missouri on the road did not hurt Vanderbilt too much metrics-wise, but a second consecutive loss to Tennessee last week dropped Vanderbilt six spots in the AP Poll and dropped it down to a No. 5 seed in NCAA Tournament bracket projections. Before losing to Tennessee, Vanderbilt was the 15th overall team and on the 4-seed line in the selection committee’s bracket preview show.
But with the loss to Tennessee, it seems that Vanderbilt would be a No. 5 seed even in committee’s eyes. However, that does not mean that Vanderbilt necessarily will be at that seed line. There are still four regular season games remaining before the SEC Tournament begins, so there is still time for Vanderbilt to move up a seed line or possibly more if Vanderbilt enters March Madness red hot.
It will not be easy to do that, though. Vanderbilt plays its final home game Wednesday night against Georgia before finishing the regular season with three road games against Kentucky, Ole Miss and Tennessee.
When thinking about Vanderbilt’s NCAA Tournament seed, what is the best case, worst case and most likely seeds for the Commodores? Let’s answer that question.
The best seed Vanderbilt can get at this point is a No. 3 seed. It will be difficult for Vanderbilt to win out the regular season but it is possible. If Vanderbilt is able to do so, or at least go 3-1 while making a run in the SEC Tournament the Commodores would have a strong case to be on the 3-seed line, which is good for top 12 in the country.
The teams Vanderbilt would have to beat to finish the regular season strong would include two quad I opponents in Kentucky (29th in the NET) and Tennessee (18th in the NET) on the road, a quad II road game against Ole Miss (91st in the NET) and a quad II home game Wednesday against Georgia (33rd in the NET).
Moreover, Vanderbilt would have to at least make it to the SEC Championship, if not, win the SEC Tournament title. Regardless on what side of the bracket Vanderbilt is on, that would include having to go through a top four SEC team in the quarterfinals assuming Vanderbilt does not get a double-bye and likely the semifinals and championship as well. All of the current top four teams in the conference would be considered quad I games.
If the best case scenario plays out, Vanderbilt could add up to five more quad I wins and bring its total to 12.
At this point, being a No. 2 seed seems like a stretch given the amount of teams at the top that could create a case to be a top seed. The demand seems to exceed the supply of No. 1 seeds and thus will spill over into the 2-seed line. Vanderbilt would probably have to rely on too many top teams to underperform in their conference tournaments.
The worst case scenario for Vanderbilt would probably be dropping to a No. 7 seed. The way that could happen is going 1-3 to finish the regular season and losing its first game in the SEC Tournament.
Finishing the regular season 1-3 probably is not likely, but playing in road environments especially to start games has been a struggle at times for Vanderbilt in conference play. The Commodores are 3-3 in road games in conference. Going to Kentucky and Tennessee are challenging atmospheres and going to Ole Miss is not a given win.
If this scenario played out, Vanderbilt would be 22-9 heading into the SEC Tournament, losing five of six games and would probably be knocked down to the bottom half of the conference and be forced to play the first day in Bridgestone Arena. Losing the first day of the tournament would be detrimental to Vanderbilt’s seeding in that scenario. 
Going 22-10 into Selection Sunday would make Vanderbilt 7-7 in quad I and 6-3 in quad II. The only way Vanderbilt could get a quad III loss would be if it played South Carolina in the first round of the conference tournament if the Gamecocks' NET ranking is not in the top 100 (currently 105).
What holds weight on Vanderbilt’s resume is the win against Alabama and its seven quad I wins, which is tied second-most in the SEC and tied with six other teams for fifth-most in college basketball right now. That should prevent Vanderbilt from dropping further than the 7-seed line.
The most likely seed for Vanderbilt is being a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, depending on how Vanderbilt fares in the road games against Kentucky and Tennessee. There is a good chance Vanderbilt should go 2-2 at worst to end the regular season. The Commodores need to bounce back at home against Georgia and will be favored against Ole Miss.
The question is can Vanderbilt get a quad I win at either Kentucky, Tennessee or both. Vanderbilt matched up well against Kentucky in its 80-55 win over the Wildcats in January and came just a few points shy of beating Tennessee in its last game. Vanderbilt can have as much as nine quad I wins heading into the SEC Tournament.
If Vanderbilt is able to get at least a one-day bye, the Commodores should be able to pick up a win against a team in the bottom half of the conference before facing another quad I opponent in one of the top four teams in the conference.
If Vanderbilt is able to pick up a strong win in the quarterfinals and get to the semifinals of the SEC Tournament, it should have a very strong argument to be a No. 4 seed. If it goes 1-1 in Bridgestone and loses in the quarterfinals, it could be almost a coin flip whether Vanderbilt is on the 4-seed or 5-seed line.
The other thing to remember is where Vanderbilt is at in the eyes of the committee entering this week. It was 15th before losing to Tennessee Saturday. Virginia was the team below Vanderbilt and a team like Alabama was likely just out of the top 16 as well. Both Virginia and Alabama won over the weekend, so in the eyes of the committee Vanderbilt is probably in that 17-19 range as of now.
Of course, Vanderbilt’s seed also depends on how teams around it also end the season. Whether teams finish better or worse than Vanderbilt could determine whether Vanderbilt is a No. 4 or No. 5 seed.
A final thing Vanderbilt should look out for is the potential of dropping to a No. 6 seed if it finishes the regular season 2-2 and loses its first game in the SEC Tournament. There is a possibility Vanderbilt could drop to that seed line if perhaps two or three teams just behind the Commodores jump them based on conference tournament results. Based on bracket projections it could be teams like Louisville, BYU and North Carolina that are not too far behind Vanderbilt. But nonetheless, Vanderbilt's most likely going to be a No. 4 or No. 5 seed.
March is coming very soon and tournament talk is just getting started. For Vanderbilt, it just has to take it one day at a time and worry about its seeding once it is finished at the SEC Tournament.
Graham Baakko is a writer for Vanderbilt Commodores On SI, primarily covering football, basketball and baseball. Graham is a recent graduate from the University of Alabama, where he wrote for The Crimson White, WVUA-FM, WVUA 23 as he covered a variety of Crimson Tide sports. He also covered South Carolina athletics as a sportswriting intern for GamecockCentral.
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