Column: Yes, Tonight is a Must Win Game for Vanderbilt Baseball – Sports Illustrated

As Vanderbilt baseball left Tuscaloosa, Alabama over the weekend, the reality of where the Commodores’ season stands with two weeks left in the regular season likely did not take long to hit. In fact, it is likely the reality set in before they even left Sewell-Thomas Stadium Saturday.
Vanderbilt was swept by Alabama and dropped to 10-14 in SEC play and 27-22 overall on the season. The Commodores have a 19-year regional streak that is now hanging in the balance with seven games to go before the SEC Tournament begins May 19.
But tonight, Vanderbilt plays its final midweek game of the season in a rivalry renewed against Louisville. It may not be a conference game, but the stakes of the game are not any less important. Vanderbilt does not have any other choice: this game is a must win, in addition to each of its last six conference games.
The two schools have created a college baseball rivalry over the years. Last season, Louisville came to Vanderbilt for the Nashville Regional and knocked off the Commodores on the second day of the regional. That loss sent Vanderbilt to an elimination game against Wright State, where it saw its 2025 season end.
That is now in the past though as the next chapter of this matchup commences. This year, Vanderbilt is fighting for its NCAA Tournament lives with essentially no room for error.
On top of Vanderbilt’s record and the backsliding it has experienced over the last month, its RPI ranking has dropped down to No. 71 in the nation. And that is maybe the most concerning part of Vanderbilt’s resume.
Since at least 2017, the worst-rated team in the RPI to make the NCAA Tournament was TCU in 2019. TCU was 59th in the RPI that season. That would mean Vanderbilt would probably have to jump 10 spots at least over the next couple of weeks.
The good news for Vanderbilt is that its schedule is more than favorable the rest of the way. After playing Louisville tonight, it has a road series against a Missouri team that is 4-20 in SEC play and a South Carolina team that is 7-17 in the conference.
The downside of that is one slip up against any of the three teams and Vanderbilt would take a big hit resume-wise. In the updated RPI rankings, Louisville is 104th, South Carolina is 102nd and Missouri is 122nd.
That is why Vanderbilt cannot afford a loss to Louisville.
A win keeps Vanderbilt’s seemingly narrow path to the tournament alive. A loss to a team outside the top 100 in RPI and a team that will not be in the tournament barring an unforeseen run from Louisville is something that the Commodores cannot afford whatsoever.
Vanderbilt has fared well in its midweek games for the majority of the time this season. The Commodores have been rock steady in their midweeks since it lost to Indiana in mid-March. But Tuesday night’s game is easily the most difficult midweek game they have had since taking on Troy early in the season.
The sense of urgency has to show from Vanderbilt against Louisville and into this weekend. However, there has to be a balance between playing with urgency and not wanting to play too tightly and look like it is feeling the pressure of the moment.
The season is not over for the Commodores. For all fans know, the selection committee could be evaluating Vanderbilt higher than most people. But one thing is for sure: Vanderbilt has to win to simply avoid disaster and stay as alive as it can be.
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Graham Baakko is a writer for Vanderbilt Commodores On SI, primarily covering football, basketball and baseball. Graham is a recent graduate from the University of Alabama, where he wrote for The Crimson White, WVUA-FM, WVUA 23 as he covered a variety of Crimson Tide sports. He also covered South Carolina athletics as a sportswriting intern for GamecockCentral.
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