College Football ATS Picks for Every Top 25 Game in Week 5 (Bet Vanderbilt to Cover Against Georgia) – si.com

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As teams across the country get into the meat of their conference schedules, we're going to find out which teams are contenders and which are pretenders this college football season.
We have plenty of great games set to take place in Week 5, and as I do each week, I'm going to give you my spread pick for every game involving a top-25 team according to the AP Poll.
Let's dive into them.
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Pick: Notre Dame -21 (-110)
Pick: Mississippi State +6 (-110)
Pick: Houston -12 (-108)
Pick: SMU -20.5 (-112)
As good as the Georgia Bulldogs are, I think this is a sell-high spot on them as 24.5-point favorites. Vanderbilt isn't an SEC contender, but they aren't a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, they're 51st in the nation in net adjusted EPA per play and 35th in net success rate. Their defense is also in the top 50 in opponent yards per play, giving up just 5.0 yards per snap.
Georgia is the better team and should play to a relatively sweat-free win, but Vanderbilt is good enough to cover this significant spread.
Pick: Vanderbilt +24 (-108)
As I wrote above, the key to hanging with Ohio State is stopping Jeremiah Smith. While Iowa is good at stopping the run, unfortunately, they have struggled to stop the pass. They rank 66th in opponent EPA per dropback, 38th in opponent dropback success rate, and 68th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.1 yards per throw.
Despite the early-season loss to Texas, Ohio State is still one of the best teams in the nation, ranking fourth in the country in net adjusted EPA per play and fifth in net success rate. They are a significant step above the Hawkeyes, and I think they'll prove that this week.
Pick: Ohio State -14.5 (-110)
Pick: Florida -5 (-110)
Tennessee certainly deserves to be favored in this game, but I think the spread is too lopsided in favor of the Volunteers. When looking at some advanced metrics, there's not much difference between these two teams. They rank 37th and 38th in adjusted net EPA per play, and Auburn actually has the advantage in net success rate, +4.8% compared to Tennessee at +1.7%.
It's also important to note that Tennessee loves to run the football, ranking in the top 30 in run-play percentage. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank 25th in opponent yards per carry (3.1) and 33rd in opponent rush success rate.
I think the Tigers can keep this one within a touchdown.
Pick: Auburn +7 (-108)
Pick: Kentucky +3 (-118)
Pick: BYU -6.5 (-110)
Pick: Miami -16.5 (-110)
As low as I am on Texas Tech compared to their preseason expectations, I simply can't bet on Colorado in this spot. They come into this week ranking 79th in adjusted net EPA per play, and they have a net success rate of -3.3%. They were steamrolled 41-7 by Northwestern, and now they face a Red Raiders team that's much better than the Wildcats, even when they don't have their best stuff.
The Red Raiders' problems through the first few weeks can certainly be solved, and last week's near-perfect performance against Sam Houston State is a positive sign that things are trending in the right direction. They currently rank 17th in the nation in net adjusted EPA per play. I'll lay the points with Texas Tech.
Pick: Texas Tech -13 (-110)
Pick: USC -10 (-110)
Pick: Utah State +20.5 (-110)
Pick: LSU N/A
Pick: Indiana -24 (-112)
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Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.
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