Can Florida basketball reach Final Four in March Madness bracket? Our prediction – Gainesville Sun

Florida basketball is capable of making a run to the Final Four, or even further.
Don’t let UF’s hiccup against Vanderbilt at the SEC Tournament in Nashville fool you. There are plenty of examples of teams that failed to win their conference tournaments only to regroup and make deep runs in March Madness. Connecticut won the first of its back-to-back national titles in 2023 despite failing to win the Big East Tournament.
Baylor failed to win the Big 12 Tournament in 2021, then cut down the nets by knocking off undefeated Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament Finals for its first national title in school history.
The Florida Gators are vying to become the second team this decade and just the third this century to repeat as national champions (UConn won back-to-back in 2023-24 and the Gators also won back-to-back in 06-07).
Florida (26-7) earned the No. 1 seed in the Men’s NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row by winning its first SEC regular season title since 2014. Before its 91-74 loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC Tournament semifinals, UF had won 12 in a row by an average margin of 21.3 points, including back-to-back 34-point wins over Arkansas and Mississippi State.
“They ran into a buzzsaw with the Vanderbilt Commodores yesterday, but this team has been on a roll,” CBS college basketball analyst Clark Kellogg said as UF was revealed as the South’s top seed on the Selection Sunday show. “And I think they will continue to roll at a high level. Frontcourt is dominant and the backcourt has raised its level during the course of the season.”
Overall, Florida has gone 21-3 since starting the season 5-4. Three of UF’s first four losses came against No. 1 seed Arizona, No. 1 seed Duke and No. 2 seed UConn, with the fourth coming against another NCAA Tournament team, No. 9 seed TCU.
Florida opens on Friday against the First Four winner between Patriot League champion Lehigh and Southwestern Conference Champion Prairie View A&M in Tampa on Friday, March 20.
Then, comes a potential matchup against the winner of No. 8 seed Clemson and No. 9 seed Iowa on Sunday, March 22. Clemson (24-10), led by forward RJ Godfrey (11.9 ppg. 5.3 rpg), ranks 71st in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and 20th in defensive efficiency. Veteran coach Brad Brownell, in his 16th season at Clemson, is a sharp defensive mind. Iowa (31st in KenPom offensive efficiency and 30th in defensive efficiency), profiles as a more balanced team under first-year coach Ben McCollum, who has led the Hawkeyes to a 21-12 record.
Securing the first weekend in Tampa was key for the Gators, who have won their last eight NCAA Tournament games within the state, dating back to 2003. UF fans and students should pack the building, creating a homecourt-type atmosphere.
The second weekend in Houston could create more potholes, with a potential rematch with No. 5 seed Vanderbilt in the Sweet 16 and a possible Elite Eight matchup against No. 2 seed Houston in its home city. The Cougars, under Kelvin Sampson, will seek revenge after falling 65-63 to UF in last year’s national title game.
Nebraska (4 seed), North Carolina (6 seed) and Saint Mary’s (7 seed) are three more dangerous teams in the South Region, should they advance. Saint Mary’s coach Randy Bennett recruited Florida basketball coach Todd Golden as a player and remains a mentor to Golden to this day.
Florida remains the best rebounding team in the country with a plus-14.6 rebounding margin. Few teams, if any, can match the size and skill of a frontcourt that includes All-American wing Thomas Haugh (6-foot-9), All-SEC forward Alex Condon (6-11) and All-SEC and SEC Defensive Player of the Year Rueben Chinyelu (6-10, with a 7-8 wingspan). Florida’s starting backcourt of Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland have improved during the course of the season, and UF has established more depth with guard Urban Klavzar emerging as the SEC’s Sixth Man of the Year.
Shooting always will be a concern, and UF took a step back by going a combined 8-of-37 (21.6%) in two SEC Tournament games. Florida is shooting 30.8% from 3-point range this season but has won by defending the 3-point line, as UF has made 243 3s on the season to its opponents’ 221 3-pointers.
Florida still profiles as one of just four teams nationally with KenPom ratings in the Top 10 in both offense (9) and defense (6). Ultimately, the Gators should go as far as their defense takes them. That should wind up being good enough to return to the Final Four for a second straight year.
Kevin Brockway is The Gainesville Sun’s Florida beat writer. Contact him at [email protected]. Follow him on X @KevinBrockwayG1. Read his coverage of the Gators’ national championship basketball season in “CHOMP-IONS!” — a hardcover coffee-table collector’s book from The Sun. Details at Florida.ChampsBook.com
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