A diagnostics check before Vanderbilt – Red Cup Rebellion

We’re a fourth of the way through the regular season, so let’s see where Ole Miss stands statistically compared to 2025.
After a refreshing week in which Ole Miss did not win, lose, or lose by 24 points, the Rebels are back in action this weekend against Vanderbilt at 2:30 God’s time in Nashville.
We give thanks for a PM kickoff time against Vanderbilt, but it is a slap in the face to the memory of Jefferson Pilot and the perpetual 11:30 AM start. From 1999 to 2011, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt played in front of the Three Daves 10 times, with 7 straight appearances (’99 to ‘05).
I note that because Saturday will be the first Ole Miss-Vandy game since 2023, which was the last game of a series that had been played every year since 1970.
As I wrote in 2023:
The series break in 2024 will mark the first time Ole Miss has not played Vanderbilt since 1969. So if you were born in 1970 or after, one day a year for your entire life has involved dealing with the Ole Miss-Vandy game.
We’ve been out here living our best lives for the last two years and didn’t even realize it. Also, that last quoted sentence is uncomfortably bleak.
While some Ole Miss fans may still be wallowing in their Burberry blanket of despair as though they’ve never seen a bad loss, Nashville is not a house of horrors for the Rebels. Vanderbilt won twice there from 2013-2023, and those were the Commodores’ only wins in the series.
The last Ole Miss loss was in 2018 (36-39 in OT) under the rudderless direction of Matt Luke. The previous loss came in 2016 during the collapse of the Hugh Freeze regime, who followed that 38-17 loss with a 55-20 loss in Oxford to Mississippi State. But let’s make more revisionist history graphics about how he’s comparable to Lane Kiffin.
The other bit of good news is that the 2026 Ole Miss offense is in the same statistical neighborhood as the 2025 version. Though it may not feel that way after they spent the first quarter of the Florida game trapped in a dumpster.
So, after a quarter of the season gone (!!!), let’s plug in the 2026 Ole Miss team to the diagnostics machine and compare it to the 2025 team. Normally, I would use multiple sites for stats, but only TeamRankings uses stats in FBS versus FBS games.
Since the sample size for 2026 is small and includes no FCS teams yet, that seems like the most fair way to do this. Or maybe not, but it is the most convenient, which is my main concern given the early stage of the season.
Also, TeamRankings does have a feature that allows me to compare the first 4 games of 2025 with 2026, but the strength of schedule difference is not comparable. Georgia State, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tulane (2025) versus Louisville, Charlotte, LSU, and Florida (2026).
As noted above, for Total and Scoring Offense, things look similar to last year. The biggest difference being we were more successful on 4th downs in 2025, but more efficient in the red zone in 2026 (probably due to Kiffin rightfully hating red zone field goals and not converting on those 4th down attempts).
Here’s one of the glaring difference between last year and this year so far. This is the difference between a healthy Kewan Lacy who got almost every carry and a Kewan Lacy who has been available for about 75 minutes of a possible 180 in games of consequence (Louisville, LSU, and Florida).
Lacy’s last touch against Louisville came with 6:34 to play in the third quarter (freakishly enough, right tackle Tommy Kinsler IV got hurt on this play). His last touch against LSU came with 8:43 to play in the third quarter.
Lacy’s elite skill is avoiding negative runs, meaning the offense is almost never in 2nd and 10+ or 3rd and 7+ situations after runs. He’s very good at everything else, but hiding an average offensive line is his superpower.
He did it in 2025, and we desperately need him to get healthy-ish and do it again in 2026.
A slight drop-off in the first category, and Trinidad Chambliss is still Trinidad Chambliss in that he does not take sacks. Kiffin noted last year that was one of their favorite things about him when they watched his Ferris State tape, and he’s continuing that trend.
Prior to the Florida game, Ole Miss was at 5.5 yards/play allowed, but giving up almost 6 yards a carry will wreck those numbers. Similarly, the 3rd down percentage was just over 40 prior to the Florida game.
Basically, we need the defense in the LSU game to show up the rest of the year.
As you might have suspected, explosive plays have killed Ole Miss this year. Passing plays against Louisville, and Florida having guys run and run and run for days.
Whether fixing it’s poor communication, missed tackles, or bad angles/leverage, the Ole Miss defense has to find solutions to stop giving up massive chunks of yards with ease. Make opposing offenses put together drives and these numbers will improve.
Prior to the Florida game, Ole Miss was ahead of last year’s pace with 4.1 yards/carry allowed. Again, getting wrecked for 6 yards a carry will change that ASAP.
The first category is directly related to the Louisville adventure. Ole Miss gave up 6 explosive pass plays (20+ yards), which is what the stat wizards call BAD. If there is good news, they’ve seemingly gotten that under control, only allowing 2 to LSU and 3 to Florida.
As for sack percentage, it continues to be a problem. Ole Miss can’t generate pressure with the front four (or three), and when they do bring additional rushers, they don’t get home with much frequency.
Overall for the defense, the pre-Florida numbers suggest the 2026 defense was on its way to matching last year’s, which, again, not great but good enough to win. The question now is whether the Florida performance will be an outlier or a sign of where things are headed.
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With Ole Miss on a bye, its time for a perfect week of picks
The Rebels now have a bye week to get healthy before an eight game stretch
Defense didn’t travel this time
A win on Saturday opens up a world of opportunities for Ole Miss
The scoreboard operators are going to be busy this week
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