Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Oklahoma Sooners.
Published Feb 7, 2026 1:01 PM EST
Audio By Carbonatix
Saturday afternoon in Nashville feels like a gut-check spot, not a glamour stage. Vanderbilt sits 19–3 and 6–3 in the SEC, still playing for seeding oxygen. Oklahoma arrives 11–12 and 1–9, wearing a nine-game league skid like a weighted vest. Memorial Gymnasium always plays a little strange, and that weirdness can either steady a favorite or gift a backdoor. Vanderbilt is also navigating guard absences, which makes structure, pressure, and shot volume even more central. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Oklahoma Sooners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Vanderbilt’s laying -11.5 because the profile screams ranked-team separation, not just home court. They’re playing top-end tempo at 74.7 possessions a night, scoring 88.8 per game with a +15.9 margin, and the shot-quality gap is loud at 56.7% eFG created versus 46.8% allowed. Vanderbilt Commodores also throttles the arc, holding opponents to 28.6% from three, while generating volume points with 10.0 made threes per game. The real ranking storyline is how the “elite offense” actually becomes blowouts: 9.7 turnovers committed, 9.1 steals forced, and a +3.9 turnover margin that turns one loose five-minute stretch into a 12–2 burst. Oklahoma can score, but it has to do it without feeding that avalanche, because it only forces 11.4 turnovers per game and allows a softer 51.1% eFG defensively. Oklahoma Sooners lives in the danger zone when possessions speed up, and that’s exactly what this building and this matchup try to induce.
The star power fits the résumé, too, and it’s not just one guy cooking. Tyler Tanner (G) is the headliner who keeps the machine organized at 17.8 points and 5.1 assists, and he just dropped 24 in a tight win over Ole Miss Rebels while the backcourt was thin. Tyler Nickel (W) is the true ranked team spacing weapon, sitting at 72-for-160 from three (45.0%) on real volume, which is how a lead balloons when defenses blink. AK Okereke (F) is the whistle stabilizer, and the 11-for-13 at the line against Ole Miss is the type of repeatable scoring that protects favorites from cold spells. Oklahoma’s counter is real and it’s guard-driven: Xzayvier Brown (G) is at 16.4 per game with a .916 free-throw clip, and he led them with 21 in the 94–78 loss at Kentucky Wildcats. If Nijel Pack (G) catches fire, he’s the variance lever, because he’s sitting at 73-for-172 from three (.424). Mohamed Wague (F) has to be the rim anchor and cleanup, because Vanderbilt’s runout game gets mean when the paint is soft.
The Oklahoma cover path is disciplined and narrow, but it exists. Protect the ball, keep live-ball turnovers off the menu, and make Vanderbilt earn points in the halfcourt. The problem is Vanderbilt’s best wins show exactly how this turns into a margin game anyway. Against Kentucky, Vanderbilt ripped 28 points off turnovers, added 13 fast-break points, and still scored 28 in the paint in an 80–55 demolition. Against Ole Miss, even in a tight 71–68 game, Vanderbilt still found 16 points off turnovers, 12 second-chance points, and 30 paint points. Oklahoma’s Kentucky loss shows the flip side of that math, because it still produced 16 fast-break points and 26 in the paint, yet only generated six points off turnovers and seven second-chance points. If Oklahoma can’t create freebies, it’s asking to play perfect offense for 40 minutes, and that’s a harsh request on the road.
I’m landing on Vanderbilt -11.5 (-105) because the lane count fits a cover at this number, even with the hook sitting there like a warning sign. Vanderbilt’s turnover edge and shot-volume profile is built to create those two-minute avalanches, and the free-points lane helps it keep scoring when the threes flatten, with 23.1 free throws attempted per game and a 0.370 FTA/FGA. The backdoor risk is obvious, though, because a team taking this many threes can erase six points in one minute, and late fouls can gift Oklahoma a soft finish.
Vanderbilt 88, Oklahoma 74.
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Dan Johnson has been an editor, writer, and analyst for DraftKings and DraftKings Network since 2024. He’s previously held editorial posts at The Paris Review, Macmillan Publishers, Bedford/St. Martin’s Press, ASSIGNMENT Magazine, and FantasySixPack. You can find his various editorial work & writing (sports-related and non-) at all of the above.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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