Heading into the final game of the regular season, we finally have some clarity in SEC Tournament seeding.
South Carolina (14-1) has clinched the outright regular-season championship and top seed in the SEC Tournament. The second and third seeds aren’t decided, but LSU (11-4) and Oklahoma (10-5) have clinched the fourth and fifth seeds.
Seeds six through 15 are unsettled. Arkansas (0-15) will be the 16th seed.
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Vanderbilt (12-3) and Texas (12-3) are tied for the second-best record. Vanderbilt won the head-to-head matchup, so the Commodores have the second seed. LSU (11-4) has clinched at least the fourth seed.
Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee are each 8-7 and tied for the sixth-best record. Based on tie-breakers, they are currently seeded in that order.
Alabama and Georgia are 7-8, but Alabama has the tiebreaker for the ninth seed. Texas A&M (6-9) is the 11th seed. Florida (5-10) has the tiebreaker over Mississippi State for the 12th seed, followed by Missouri (4-11) and Auburn (3-12).
Scenarios
Second seed
Vanderbilt clinches: A win -or- a loss and a Texas loss
Texas clinches: A win and a Vanderbilt loss
Third seed
Vanderbilt clinches: A loss and a Texas win
Texas clinches: A Vanderbilt win -or- A loss
Sixth through 11 seeds
This is where the real drama is, given the drastic difference between the eighth seed and the ninth seed. Seeds nine and below start play on Wednesday, while six through eight get a bye straight to Thursday.
Kentucky beat Ole Miss, who beat Tennessee, who beat Kentucky. Alabama beat Georgia, who split with Ole Miss. Texas A&M beat Alabama but lost to Georgia. Thereare too many iterations to try to figure out each possible scenario. The focus for each of these teams is: Just win, baby.
Texas A&M beat Florida and Missouri, so the Aggies can’t drop below 11.
12th seed and below
There really isn’t much practical difference in these seeds, so I won’t bother with all of the details. Florida has the tiebreaker on Mississippi State and Missouri. Missouri has the tiebreaker over Mississippi State. Auburn has the tiebreaker over Missouri.
Arkansas hosts Auburn on Sunday, trying to avoid becoming the 15th* winless team in the 44-season history of the SEC. Arkansas would be just the second team to go winless with the 16-game schedule, which began with the 2009-10 season.
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(*Vanderbilt was 0-3 in 2020-21 before canceling the rest of its season due to COVID, injuries, and opt-outs. Auburn went 0-15 that season because it did not make up the canceled game against Vanderbilt.)
SEC Standings
1. South Carolina 14-1
2. Vanderbilt 12-3
3. Texas 12-3
4. LSU 11-4
5. Oklahoma 10-5
6. Kentucky 8-7
7. Ole Miss 8-7
8. Tennessee 8-7
9. Alabama 7-8
10. Georgia 7-8
11. Texas A&M 6-9
12. Florida 5-10
13. Mississippi State 5-10
14. Missouri 4-11
15. Auburn 3-12
16. Arkansas 0-15
Sadly, “A coin flip by the commissioner” is no longer one of the tie-breaking procedures.
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Tie-Breaker procedures
1. Two-Team Tie:
The following procedure will be used in the following order until the tie is broken:
A. Won-lost results of head-to-head competition between the two teams.
B. Won-lost percentage of the two teams versus the highest seed (and proceeding through the lowest seed, if necessary).
C. Won-lost results in road Conference games.
D. Head-to-head point differential (points scored minus points allowed) between the two tied teams.
E. Winning percentage against all Quad 1 Division I opponents.
F. Winning percentage against all Quad 2 Division I opponents.
G. NCAA NET ranking (most recent available NET ranking before the conference tournament).
2. Three-Team Tie (or more):
When three or more teams are tied, the following procedure will be used in the following order until the tie is broken. If two teams remain tied after a tiebreaker provision, the two-team tiebreaker formula will be used:
A. Best winning percentage of games played among the tied teams (Example: Team A is 3-1, Team B is 2-2 and Team C is 1-3 – Team A would be seeded highest, Team B second-highest and Team C lowest of the three).
B. Best winning percentage of the tied teams versus the highest seed (and proceeding through the lowest seed, if necessary).
C. Won-lost results in road Conference games.
D. Head-to-head point differential (points scored minus points allowed) between the two tied teams.
E. Winning percentage against all Quad 1 Division I opponents.
F. Winning percentage against all Quad 2 Division I opponents.
G. NCAA NET ranking (most recent available NET ranking before the conference tournament).
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