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March 21, 2025. Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball has just fallen short of a potential upset over Saint Mary’s in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. What does head coach Mark Byington do in response?
He doesn’t sulk about the loss and what could’ve been. He doesn’t blame the officiating or his players for not making it past the Gaels. He moves past it, taking in the success of the season as a whole, and turns the page to look ahead to next season.
Fast forward nearly a year, and Byington and his Commodores are back in the Big Dance. The Black and Gold finished the regular season strong (24-7, 11-7 SEC) before picking up wins over Tennessee and Florida in the SEC Tournament and ultimately losing in the championship game to Arkansas. With an overall record of 26-8, the ’Dores went into Selection Sunday with their heads held high, earning the 5 seed in the South Region of the bracket.
In their Round of 64 bout against McNeese, Vanderbilt showed signs of struggle early on. It overcame the early game jitters, however, nabbing a 38-35 lead by the end of the first half. This success persisted through the remainder of the game, as the ’Dores came away with a 78-68 victory in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest storylines in this historic win.
Regression to the mean
Regression to the mean is a statistical phenomenon where extreme data points or samples — either very high or very low — are followed by more predictable outcomes that lie closer to the mean. This phenomenon is very real in the game of basketball and particularly evident for the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Vanderbilt started the game shooting 0-for-5 from 3-point range over the first five minutes of the game. The team went just 6-for-15 from the field in the first 12 minutes of play and committed seven turnovers through less than 16 minutes. This slow start was highly uncharacteristic for a team that tends to be efficient and not very prone to mistakes.
Eventually, the Commodores found their rhythm. The 0-for-5 3-point start turned into 2-for-7, then 5-for-12, then 7-for-16, before ultimately ending the game shooting 9-for-24 (37.5%) from beyond the arc. From the field, they shot over 50% as a team, and they cleaned up the turnovers in the second half, too, only giving the basketball up five times in the second period.
The low data points in the first third of the game regressed to the mean, and Vanderbilt got back on track. On the other hand, McNeese started out with some unusually high statistics that fell closer to its averages as the game rolled on.
The Cowboys began the game 3-for-3 from deep, but that number slowly dwindled, falling to 4-for-9, then 5-for-14, then 7-for-23 (30.4%) — much closer to their average 3-point percentage of 31.7%. Despite some hot individual performances, McNeese couldn’t overcome the statistical phenomenon of regressing to its mean.
Tanner team takeover
If you’re familiar with the game series of NBA 2K, you may be familiar with the term “Team Takeover.” This represents an effect where the entire team’s performance is boosted because of an individual player’s exceptional play.
This seemed to be exactly what happened for the Commodores, on the back of 26 points from Tyler Tanner. Tanner’s teammates benefitted from his individual takeover, and the ’Dores emerged victorious behind double-digit scoring efforts from four starters.
Devin McGlockton finished with a strong stat line of 12 points and 8 rebounds, Duke Miles added in 13 points of his own and Tyler Nickel continued to regain confidence with a 12-point performance with three 3-pointers. It seems that for Byington’s squad, when one player turns up his level of play, everyone else will follow suit.
Atmospheric pressure
Byington will need all of his players to turn up on Saturday, particularly with the crowd environment they will be playing in.
“How lucky are we that we’re basically playing a road game in the NCAA Tournament,” Byington said about the matchup with Nebraska. “Andy Katz told me that [it was] the best opening crowd he’s ever seen in all his history of NCAA tournaments. In the SEC, we’re used to [it]. Now when I hear Go Big Red, we’re going to be outnumbered probably 98%. It’s going to be a true road game for us.”
Against McNeese, Vanderbilt fans filled up just one of the 20 sections in the lower bowl of Paycom Center. The lack of in-person support for the team was apparent before and during the game, as the atmosphere was relatively quiet throughout all 40 minutes.
In the game prior, however, Nebraska fans packed nearly the entire stadium, turning the arena into a sea of red. A majority even stayed in their seats for the Vanderbilt-McNeese contest, pushing heavily for the Cowboys to pull off an upset in hopes of an easier opponent. They will certainly bring the same, if not a greater, level of support for their team after it secured its first-ever NCAA Tournament victory.
The Commodores know what it’s like to play in a tough road environment — after all, they’ve played nine road games in the SEC. Freshman guard Chandler Bing believes in his team to survive and thrive in the aggressive atmosphere.
“It’s gonna be like a road game for us, but we’ve had those all throughout the season in the SEC, and even in non-conference games,” Bing told The Hustler. “We’ll be ready for it. It’s going to be a great atmosphere. We’ve got to come out ready to play together and have our own atmosphere.”
Byington will certainly have his squad prepared for the challenge.
Vanderbilt will face Nebraska on Saturday, March 21, in Oklahoma City, OK, in the Round of 32.
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Steve Mccormick • Mar 20, 2026 at 11:00 am CDT
GO BIG RED!!!
