Why was Vanderbilt favored over Nebraska's crowd? I've a guess | Estes – The Tennessean

OKLAHOMA CITY – Seemingly half the state of Nebraska is here or on the way, so it’s been a bit intriguing to notice the oddsmakers’ take on the fourth-seeded Cornhuskers’ Men’s NCAA Tournament second-round game.
Fifth-seeded Vanderbilt has been favored, for starters.
Not by a lot. The point spread opened at 2.5. By the eve of the game, it was at 1.5 and shrinking.
Nonetheless, if conventional betting wisdom gives the home team three points, that means the wise guys believe Vanderbilt is five or six points better than a higher-seeded Nebraska team that started 20-0 and just pummeled poor Troy in a cauldron as noisy as any first-round NCAA venue you’ll ever see. That’s a bit surprising.
Another thing: The game’s over-under (146.5), also as of the eve of the game, was the third-lowest of the eight second-round men’s NCAA Tournament games on March 21.
Which backs what Vanderbilt coach Mark Byington said on March 20: “I wouldn’t be surprised if the game tomorrow is in the 60s or low 70s.”
Byington, obviously, wasn’t talking about betting lines, but the point he was making was educational. He explained how “everyone wants to make it real complicated” this time of year, but “really, there’s going to be three things that are going to dictate almost every single game.”
Those things, Byington said, are turnovers, rebounding …
“Then the other thing is defense.”
Nebraska, statistically, has one of the best defenses in college basketball. So why favor Vanderbilt in this relatively low-scoring game in an arena overflowing with red?
Could it be a nod to Vanderbilt’s defense?
You don’t hear much about the Commodores’ defensive turnaround during Byington’s second season. It gets overshadowed – and understandably so – by the pace and flashy style and offensive ball movement and scoring prowess of Tyler Tanner, Duke Miles and others.
But Vanderbilt is No. 73 nationally in field goal defense (42.5%), which sounds a lot better when noting that it was No. 291 last season (45.8%). In 3-point defense, Vanderbilt is No. 90 nationally, (32.3%), up from 334th – out of 355 teams – last season (36.6%).
“Last year, we ranked last in the SEC in defense,” Byington said. “We were 16th. This year … our defense can be a strength of ours and not something we have to hide.”
Of the three victories in Vanderbilt’s four postseason games, the Commodores held the opponent to 74 points or fewer in each. That included Tennessee, Florida and McNeese in an ugly 78-68 first-round victory that was more a credit to Vandy’s defense than offense.
“Guys understand that there are going to be games when shots aren’t falling,” Vanderbilt assistant coach Matt Bucklin said. “… You’re going to have to win games with your defense. You’re going to have to have players make plays in the last four minutes of the game, because offense is so good.
“Our guys, to their credit, they’ve done it here lately pretty well.”
Bucklin is a former player and coach for Mark Fox at Georgia (and, more famously, he’s Michigan State coach Tom Izzo’s nephew). Bucklin is also Byington’s defensive coordinator, so to speak. He sets things on that side of the court and “has been a big part of everything we’ve got going on,” Vandy’s Tyler Nickel said.
Bucklin, in turn, credits the Commodores’ experience and ball-hawking guards like Tanner and Miles pressuring the perimeter as key factors defensively.
“I think, more than anything,” Bucklin said, “we’ve proven more this year we stay in front of the ball most games pretty well. Not every game. But most games.”
What Bucklin has stressed, Nickel said, was playing connected with a mindset of “No one is ever guarding alone.”
“It’s not anything too different (schematically) from anybody else,” Nickel said. “I think it’s just the energy and the intensity of it. … The energy and the connectiveness, I think, is what’s different from a lot of other teams.”
That’ll get tested by Nebraska.
Difference this season is that Vanderbilt feels ready for whatever type of game might be ahead in the second round, even if it’s another ugly one.
“We knew that we couldn’t go score-for-score with every single team that we were going to play,” Vanderbilt forward Devin McGlockton said. “We knew we had to step up our defense if we were going to stop these teams from scoring in the 90s and 80s.
“Sometimes we have to score in the 70s, but we’re good with that, because we play both sides of the ball.”
Reach Tennessean sports columnist Gentry Estes at [email protected] and hang out with him on Bluesky @gentryestes.bsky.social

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