Vanderbilt basketball vs McNeese prediction: Our pick for 2026 NCAA Tournament first round – The Tennessean

Want to know the difference between receiving a No. 4 and a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament?
Vanderbilt (26-8), which got a No. 5 seed despite beating Florida to reach the SEC Tournament final, will open against McNeese (28-5), the Southland Conference champs.
The Cowboys have a KenPom rating of No. 68. That’s one of the highest in the nation for any mid-major team, and it’s 25 spots higher than Miami (Ohio), which received an at-large bid to this NCAA Tournament.
Meanwhile, right next to Vanderbilt in the bracket is No. 4 seed Nebraska (26-6), which will face No. 13 seed Troy (22-11).
In KenPom, Troy is No. 143.
McNeese is closer to Vanderbilt than Troy is to McNeese. And that illustrates the difficulty presented by Vanderbilt’s opening game March 19 in Oklahoma City (2:15 p.m. CT, TruTV).
Much of the Cowboys’ reputation predates this team, as the program is 86-16 during the past three seasons.
Under former coach Will Wade, McNeese upset fifth-seeded Clemson 69-67 as the No. 12 seed in last season’s NCAA Tournament. In that game, the Cowboys jumped all over the Tigers defensively to take an 18-point halftime lead that held up until the finish line.
Bill Armstrong departed Baylor’s staff to replace Wade this season, and the results have been similar. Take away nonconference defeats to tournament teams Michigan and Santa Clara, and McNeese has lost only three times.
It is carrying a 10-game winning streak to Oklahoma City, though it was fortunate to get out of its conference tournament (despite playing at home). UT Rio Grande Valley had multiple end-game possessions to knock out McNeese in the semifinals, taking the Cowboys to triple overtime before finally falling 84-80.
The Cowboys’ top three scorers are listed as guards, though freshman and leading scorer Larry Johnson (17.5 points per game), who originally signed with Creighton, seems more like a forward. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, he’s a physical player. Not a great 3-point shooter statistically, but he gets a lot of his points at the foul line. He’s also McNeese’s leading rebounder.
Tyshawn Archie, a 6-1 junior guard who transferred from Tulsa, gets 14.3 points a game as the top perimeter shooter, while senior Javohn Garcia, at 6-3, gets 12 points a game.
But on paper, this is a deep team, more than a star-studded team. A total of 10 McNeese players appeared in at least 27 games this season. Meanwhile, no one on the team averaged 30 minutes a game.
The biggest strength is on defense. The Cowboys get after you, and that is evident in the number of turnovers they’ve created. They force nearly 17 turnovers a game, which ranks second nationally. They get 10.5 steals per game, while their opponents are getting only 4.5.
McNeese is also 27th in field goal percentage defense. Teams shoot only 40.7% against the Cowboys. They are good on the offensive boards, too, which could present a problem for Vanderbilt.
Despite good guard play, the Cowboys don’t shoot well from 3-point range. At 31.9%, they are only No. 289 nationally.
Vanderbilt 80, McNeese 69: The Commodores’ physicality and defensive improvement showed during the SEC Tournament. But they shouldn’t want to get into the mud and play that kind of game with a team like McNeese.
The first five to 10 minutes of this game will be important. If the Commodores are able to get into a rhythm offensively from the jump, they have the ability to overwhelm an opponent that might struggle to keep up in a free-flowing game. Letting the Cowboys hang around all afternoon, though, would be dangerous.
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