Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Predictions for Purdue-Michigan, Vanderbilt-Arkansas) – Sports Illustrated

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There are five NCAA Tournament bids on the line on Sunday afternoon before the entire 68-team bracket is revealed during the Selection Sunday show:
There are a few bid stealers alive on Sunday, as the Dayton Flyers and Wichita State Shockers both likely need to win to get into the NCAA Tournament. Plus, the VCU Rams are on the bubble and may need to beat Dayton to get into the tourney themselves.
This is the peak time of year to bet on college basketball, as March Madness is truly underway during conference tournament week. 
I’ve made a pick for all five games on Sunday’s slate, but I’m sharing my favorites here so you can lock in for this afternoon’s action before the bracket is revealed. 
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Tyler Tanner and the Vanderbilt Commodores shocked the top-seeded Florida Gators in the SEC Tournament on Saturday, and I think they’re in prime position to capture an SEC Tournament title on Sunday.
I broke down this game in a betting preview earlier on Sunday: 
Arkansas has one of the most impressive offenses in the country, but I can’t look past the team’s defensive issues when it comes to this matchup.
The Razorbacks needed a huge game from Acuff in the quarterfinals to get past Oklahoma, and they went to overtime and nearly lost to Ole Miss on Saturday. Acuff wasn’t nearly as good in that game, but there is a lot of pressure on him – and the rest of this offense – to perform at a high level night in and night out.
Arkansas ranks just 186th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 52nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (Vandy is 29th) and 284th in opponent 2-point percentage.
On offense, the Razorbacks are a well-oiled machine, ranking first in turnover rate, 15th in 3-point percentage and 22nd in eFG%. However, Arkansas doesn't usually have a huge advantage from 3, as it is 314th in 3-point rate this season.
On top of that, Vandy ranks 40th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage and 4th in opponent effective field goal percentage. The Commodores have a potent offense – 29th in eFG%, 11th in turnover rate – and I’m not putting too much stock into a bad loss to the Razorbacks much earlier this season.
Right now, Vandy is the better team, and it already upset the best squad in the SEC. I like the Commodores to win outright on Sunday after Arkansas had to battle in overtime against No. 15-seed Ole Miss in the semis.   
Can the Rams secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament and avoid sweating out the selection show tonight? I think they can, as they’ve handled Dayton pretty easily this season. I shared why in today’s betting preview for this matchup: 
Dayton has made a nice run in the A-10 tourney, and it did close the regular season by winning six of its final seven games.
Still, the Flyers rank outside the top-140 in both effective field goal percentage and opponent effective field goal percentage, making them a tough team to trust against a potent Rams offense. VCU is 46th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and it ranks 61st or better in both eFG% and opponent eFG%. 
While the Flyers are inside the top 40 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, they struggle to defend the 3-ball this season, allowing opponents to make 35.3 percent of their attempts (262nd in the country). That’s going to be a problem against VCU, which is 40th in the country in 3-point percentage on offense. 
The Rams also do a great job of getting to the line, ranking 12th in the land in free-throw rate.
VCU already has two wins by two possessions (or much more in the case of the 26-point win) against the Flyers this season, and Dayton’s one-point win over Saint Louis doesn’t sway my thinking in this game.
I think the Rams lock up their NCAA Tournament spot on Sunday afternoon. 
Michigan is a true national title contender and only has two losses this season, but it has looked a little vulnerable in the Big Ten Tournament, beating Ohio State by four and Wisconsin by three despite being heavily favored in both games.
Oddsmakers have adjusted the line for the Big Ten Tournament Final against a ranked Purdue team, but I’m not sure this line has moved enough in favor of the Boilermakers.
Purdue has put together a strong Big Ten Tournament, knocking off Northwestern by 13, Nebraska by 16 and UCLA by seven to reach the final. Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn are two of the more experienced players in college basketball, and that matters a ton when it comes to March Madness and winner-take-all games.
Michigan had an 11-point win over Purdue earlier this season, but the Boilermakers showed they can score on the No. 1 defense in the country (per KenPom) in that matchup.
Meanwhile, Michigan’s offense has struggled in the Big Ten Tournament, putting up 71 points against Ohio State and just 68 in the win over Wisconsin. The Wolverines have won just one game by more than 10 points since that Purdue game, and while they deserve to be favored in this matchup, I think they may have a hard time pulling away on Sunday.
Purdue is easily the best team the Wolverines have faced in this tournament, and it ranks eighth in KenPom with the No. 2 offense in the country. I like getting the points with this two-possession spread on Sunday.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.
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