Denny Medley-Imagn Images. Pictured: The Missouri Tigers.
The Vanderbilt Commodores take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia on Wednesday, Feb. 18. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Vanderbilt is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. Missouri, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +140 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 153 total points.
Here’s my Vanderbilt vs. Missouri prediction and college basketball picks for Wednesday, February 18.
My Pick: Over 154.5
My Vanderbilt vs Missouri best bet is on both teams to go over the total. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Vanderbilt Basketball
Vanderbilt is one of the best stories of this college basketball season. Head coach Mark Byington has had the Commodores playing at an elite level all year.
Vandy is 21-4 on the season and 8-4 in league play, checking in at 12th overall on KenPom. It’s also top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
The ‘Dores have been playing without two key players for almost a month now in Duke Miles and Frankie Collins. These two veteran guards are awesome two-way players whom Vandy should hopefully be getting back soon.
In the meantime, Tyler Tanner has taken his sophomore leap to another level, establishing himself as one of the best point guards in the country.
He’s coming off his worst outing of the season Saturday, scoring just four points, but it didn’t matter as Vandy still beat Texas A&M by 13 at home.
Tanner had gone for 24 or more points in four of his previous five games before that and has done a great job orchestrating the offense in the absence of his backcourt running mates.
A key tenet of Byington’s system is excelling in the turnover department. Vandy ranks top-three in the SEC in both offensive and defensive turnover rate. This team also loves to push the pace and shoot a ton of 3s
Missouri Basketball
Missouri finds itself on the bubble here in mid-February, with a 17-8 record and a 7-5 mark in SEC play. The Tigers have been inconsistent this season, but the highs of this team are quite exciting.
Mizzou has some great home wins over Florida and Auburn, along with road wins over Kentucky and Texas A&M. A few games have definitely gotten away from them, like a 26-point road loss at Alabama and a 17-point home loss vs. Texas last time out.
Dennis Gates’ group is very talented. Their positional size makes them a tough matchup for a lot of teams.
Everything starts for Mizzou with Mark Mitchell, who leads the team in points, rebounds and assists. Mitchell is surrounded by plenty of 3-point shooters like Jayden Stone, Trent Pierce and Jacob Crews.
Mizzou is excellent at getting to the free-throw line and offensive rebounding, punishing teams on the interior. Its kryptonite has been converting on those free-throw opportunities, though, shooting under 67% from the stripe in league play.
Defense and defensive rebounding have been the two biggest weaknesses for Gates since he took over the program four years ago, but this year’s iteration of the Tigers has been much improved in those areas.
Vanderbilt vs Missouri Pick, Betting Analysis
These teams played two close matchups last season and split the series. One key takeaway was that Mitchell attempted 24 free throws in those two games combined.
The key to this game for Vanderbilt is whether or not it can stay out of foul trouble and keep Mizzou off the offensive glass. With Mitchell and Phillips’ physicality in the frontcourt, that could be a challenge for the ‘Dores.
This is a tough cap for me because I could see Vandy winning this on the road by double digits. The ‘Dores could blow this one open forcing turnovers, generating paint touches at will and finding looks for open shooters.
However, it’s hard to get behind that play when a home 'dog desperate for a win has a path to dominating the interior.
I’d lean toward taking the points here, but instead I’ll opt for a play on the total. I’m expecting both teams to score effectively here and for this number to go over the total.
My Pick: Over 154.5 (Play to 156)
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