In this story:
The first top-16 reveal for the women’s basketball tournament came last week and there weren’t a whole lot of surprises at the top. UConn, UCLA and South Carolina earned No. 1 seeds after showing consistent dominance all season long.
Vanderbilt took the fourth No. 1 seed, but there is a strong case that Texas could snag that before the season is over. Our writers and editors evaluate that very debate in this week’s roundtable.
Emma Baccellieri: We have a perfect distillation of two perennial bracketology questions here. How much (if any) should we discount what happened back in November? And how much emphasis should we place on what happened when two teams went head-to-head? Your personal accounting on those matters likely decides where you fall on Texas versus Vanderbilt. The Longhorns are 10–3 in Quad 1 games to the Commodores’ 6–3. That stat alone makes a strong case for Texas. But much of the difference in those records comes from how Texas played in November, when it took down both No. 2 UCLA and then No. 3 South Carolina, making its case as one of the best teams in the country. (Texas lost the conference rematch to South Carolina in January.) And when these programs matched up last week, Vanderbilt trounced Texas, 86-70. The Longhorns had not lost to any team by more than five points this season. Vanderbilt tripled that margin of victory and made it look easy.
Had that game been a little closer, I would have an easier time going with Texas, which has the better record overall and in Quad 1. But it wasn’t closer. So if Vanderbilt wins out—no small task in this conference—and does well in the SEC tournament, I’d be inclined to give that last No. 1 to the Commodores. If Vanderbilt loses before the conference tourney finals, however, I think it belongs to Texas.
Clare Brennan: Texas. Yes, Vanderbilt defeated the Longhorns 86–70 in convincing fashion on Thursday. And while the Commodores’ dominant showing shouldn’t be overlooked, Texas has the more complete résumé of the two teams. The Longhorns have the higher net ranking (No. 4 to Vanderbilt’s No. 7) and four more Quad 1 wins than the Commodores. Vic Schaefer’s squad also boasts neutral-site wins over No. 2 UCLA and No. 3 South Carolina. But those back-to-back wins were in November, and the Longhorns will need to make a late-season charge to overcome Thursday’s 16-point loss in Nashville. Sunday’s narrow road win over Tennessee was a critical step in that endeavor.
Dan Falkenheim: Whoever wins the destined SEC tournament semifinal between Texas and Vanderbilt. (I’m only half-kidding.) Emma and Clare have both laid out why there’s a compelling case for each team, but I agree with Clare that it should be Texas. The Longhorns have one strength that the Commodores do not: a top-four defense. (It’s fair to ask where that was against Vanderbilt.) Texas ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency and 36th in allowed effective field goal percentage; Vanderbilt ranks 41st and 257th, respectively. When looking for nits to pick beyond who has beaten whom, the Longhorns have fewer blemishes on paper. They are experienced, tough on defense, strong on the boards, and stingy with second-chance opportunities—all components necessary to make a Final Four run. With those two wins against the Gamecocks and Bruins in its back pocket as well, Texas is the worthy final No. 1 seed if the team stabilizes down the stretch.
TCU: After falling to unranked Colorado, the Horned Frogs are playing with grit and Olivia Miles has gone supernova. Miles scored 23 of TCU’s 25 third-quarter points against Baylor en route to a career-high 41 points and a win for the Horned Frogs. (TCU entered the second half ahead by four and won by 16.) Three days later, TCU found itself trailing West Virginia 28–22 at the half. No problem. The Horned Frogs outscored the Mountaineers 24–11 in the third quarter (how about this show of emotion from the usually reserved Miles?) and hung on for a 59–50 win. Sunday’s win against West Virginia marked the first time TCU notched back-to-back victories against top-30 teams (by NET rankings), which may be a good omen as the regular season draws to a close. —Dan Falkenheim
Princeton: The Tigers are unranked for the first time since early December, and a pesky Ivy League rival is to blame. Columbia went on a pair of 10–0 and 13–2 runs in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, and outrebounded Princeton 43–22 to pull off the upset. (Princeton hasn’t beaten Columbia in over two years.) Friday’s loss lowers the Tigers’ margin of error: If Princeton doesn’t win the conference tournament, it may run the risk of climbing as high as No. 19 only to be excluded from the NCAA tournament altogether. —Dan Falkenheim
Dawn Staley did what she does best this past weekend: win. The South Carolina coach earned her 500th victory with the Gamecocks after a 79–72 over SEC rival LSU.
500 🗣️ 500 🗣️ 500 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/RUgt1HdPj9
And with the game against the Tigers happening on Valentine’s Day, Staley of course had to wear her iconic “Boo” hoodie.
Happy Valentine’s Day – IYKYK pic.twitter.com/h8rvabUIiA
Clare Brennan is an associate editor for Sports Illustrated focused on women’s sports. Before joining SI in October 2022, she worked as an associate editor at Just Women’s Sports and as an associate producer for WDET in Detroit. Brennan has a bachelor's in international studies from the University of Wisconsin and a master's in art history from Wayne State University.
Emma Baccellieri is a staff writer who focuses on baseball and women's sports for Sports Illustrated. She previously wrote for Baseball Prospectus and Deadspin, and has appeared on BBC News, PBS NewsHour and MLB Network. Baccellieri has been honored with multiple awards from the Society of American Baseball Research, including the SABR Analytics Conference Research Award in historical analysis (2022), McFarland-SABR Baseball Research Award (2020) and SABR Analytics Conference Research Award in contemporary commentary (2018). A graduate from Duke University, she’s also a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America.
© 2026 ABG-SI LLC – SPORTS ILLUSTRATED IS A REGISTERED TRADEMARK OF ABG-SI LLC. – All Rights Reserved. The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Betting and gambling content is intended for individuals 21+ and is based on individual commentators' opinions and not that of Sports Illustrated or its affiliates, licensees and related brands. All picks and predictions are suggestions only and not a guarantee of success or profit. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
