Date: January 31, 2026
Time: 5:00pm CST
TV: SECN
Radio: 92.9 FM
Spread: Vandy-11.5 | O/U 149.5
AP Rank
Ole Miss – NA
Vandy – 18
Kenpom Rank
Ole Miss -73
Vandy – 12
Net Rank
Ole Miss -83
Vandy – 13
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency:
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency:
Adjusted Tempo:
Average Possession Length:
Effective FG%:
Leading Scorers
Three weeks ago, Ole Miss looked like one of the worst teams in the SEC, sitting at 8-7 overall and 0-2 in league play. Chris Beard’s group responded well from that low point, stringing together three straight wins, including an overtime victory on the road against Georgia.
The Rebels’ upswing came to a halt in their last two games, a 12-point home loss against Auburn and a nine-point road loss to Kentucky.
Ole Miss’ issues lie with its’ inefficient offense and a good, but not great, defense. Beard has searched for answers across his roster, starting 10 different players this season, with the minutes distribution varying significantly from game to game.
Beard appeared to have found something by moving his best scorer — AJ Storr — into a sixth-man role. He’s been productive in that spot this month, albeit with middling efficiency. Nothing really comes easy for this team offensively, as the Rebels remain heavily reliant on self-creation from Storr and skilled big man Malik Dia.
French point guard Ilias Kamardine is the other player capable of creating shots for himself and others, leading the team with 4.1 assists per game. He’s been very inconsistent this season, though, and is a combined 4-for-22 from the field over the last two losses.
Ole Miss also gets hammered in the foul department every game. The Rebels are last in the SEC in free-throw attempt rate on both ends of the floor. They’re also bottom-three in the league in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.
Some less-informed observers overreacted to Vanderbilt losing three straight SEC games after a 16-0 start to the season. A close home loss to Florida was flanked by a couple of blowouts on the road at Texas and Arkansas, although the Texas game was a four-point contest at the under-eight timeout in the second half.
Regardless, Vandy bounced back in a big way with 30-point routs at Mississippi State and at home against Kentucky. The Commodores are still clearly in the SEC’s top tier and a top-15 team nationally, even though those losses highlighted a potential weakness.
It’s no secret that Vanderbilt is a bit on the smaller side, starting two 6-foot-7 bigs in Devin McGlockton and AK Okereke. The Commodores did, however, slide Okereke to the three and go bigger on Tuesday, giving 6-foot-10 Jalen Washington his second start of the season in the win over Kentucky.
Even though the lack of size and physicality was on display against Texas and Arkansas, Vandy was up one in the final minute at Florida and has beaten bigger teams all season. The disruptive nature and connectivity of the Dores’ defense have them ranked 15th nationally in defensive efficiency.
This is also an elite offensive team, ranking 13th nationally in efficiency, that takes tremendous care of the ball, sitting sixth in the country in turnover rate.
Tyler Tanner is in complete command of this offense and has taken his play to another level since his team lost backcourt mates Frankie Collins and, more recently, Duke Miles to injury. He’s shouldering a heavy load right now, but his efficiency and ball security have remained excellent despite the increased usage.
Even down a couple of pace-pushing guards, Mark Byington’s group is still playing the exact same style: an up-tempo offense where the ball is shared and a high volume of 3s are taken.
There’s a world where Ole Miss keeps this game close by slowing the tempo and containing Tanner. But I would be very surprised if that happens.
Vanderbilt was never going to go undefeated, and a couple of weeks ago, it dropped road games against very good, athletic teams.
At home, against an offensively challenged Ole Miss group, I like Vanderbilt’s chances to pull away comfortably.
Ole Miss doesn’t have the outside shooting or interior dominance needed to stay in this one. Vandy rolls at home.
Chef Miller’s Predicted Score: Vandy 84 Ole Miss 71
Full Analytics Deep Dive -> https://www.on3.com/sites/the-dore-report/news/vanderbilt-vs-ole-miss-game-preview-analytics-deep-dive/
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