It is tempting to believe that Vanderbilt is neither sneaky-good nor sneaky-dangerous. The Alabama staff will not be so tempted. A 2024 experience in Nashville brings focus to a task of winning as a two-touchdown favorite.
The Commodores have followed a 10-3 2025 season with a current 4-5 campaign. Such is life without Diego Pavia's magic and bravado. The Dores have been soundly beaten by Georgia, Ole Miss, and Kentucky. Even lowly Auburn and Arkansas only beat Vandy by six points and 10 points, respectively.
Vandy did win last Saturday, beating Mississippi State 25-23 in Starkville. Clark Lea is a good coach. In his fifth and now sixth Vanderbilt seasons, the Commodores are up to physical battles. Former 5-star quarterback Jared Curtis no longer plays like a hit-or-miss freshman. He has a good arm, above average accuracy, and can run when needed. Against SEC defenses, Curtis' Passer Rating is ranked No. 11, just a tad behind Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and above Auburn's Byrum Brown.
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Brian Fremeau's FEI model rates Vanderbilt No. 81 in Offensive Efficiency and No. 56 in Defensive Efficiency. Vanderbilt's highest efficiency rating is Special Teams, ranked No. 44. Alabama ranks No. 8 in Offensive Efficiency, No. 7 in Defensive Efficiency, and No. 10 in Special Teams Efficiency
Vandy's offense has hit on enough explosive passing plays (30+ yards) to rank tied for fourth among SEC teams. The Commodore rushing offense is last in the SEC (conference games only) with a net 2.93 yards-per-carry average. Two fourth-year players lead Vandy's rushing attack. The pair's average against SEC opponents is less than 3.5 yards per carry.
In yards per play allowed, Vanderbilt is No. 13 among SEC teams, not far worse than Mississippi State and Auburn, and better than Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.
Based on these stats and others, an easy conclusion is that Vanderbilt has next to no chance of upsetting Alabama. ESPN's FPI model calculates that the Crimson Tide has a 94.8% probability of beating the Commodores. Computer models make mistakes, but I suspect not in this case. The Commodores are neither sneaky-good nor sneaky-dangerous. Only Alabama can beat Alabama on Saturday.
Note: Stats provided by cfbstats.com
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