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NASHVILLE—All of a sudden, a win looks like it’s in play for Vanderbilt as it travels to Starkville to face Mississippi State on its field.
Saturday had been written off as a loss externally as a result of Mississippi State’s strong start on the back of star quarterback Kamario Taylor, but Taylor is out for the season with injury. As a result, Mississippi State has turned to former Vanderbilt starter AJ Swann to run the show on Saturday.
Mississippi State still has more things going for it than Vanderbilt entering Saturday as the Commodores exit their bye week on a five-game losing streak, but Vanderbilt appears energized and Clark Lea believes his staff used the bye week effectively.
Vandy on SI has been on site for every open Vanderbilt practice and press conference to gather information about Lea's sixth Vanderbilt team. All of those days have led here. Here’s our predictions.
Can Lea and company pick up their first SEC win and snap their losing streak?
I’m changing up on what I’ve said in the past, and picking Vanderbilt to win this one in a low scoring affair. If the Bulldogs weren’t coming into the game with a backup QB, there would be no debate here. But I believe that aspect makes this game prove-it time for the entirety of Lea’s staff, including him. If the Commodores used their bye week wisely and made the changes in both the offensive and defensive schemes that they needed to make, they should walk out of Saturday with a win. Otherwise, expect Lea to have his hands full with a coaching staff rebuild.
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Vanderbilt is reeling, but it is coming off a bye week and knows it needs to win just to feel good about itself. The key here is that Mississippi State has yet to show it can be effective and dangerous offensively without Taylor. Bothwell will get his yards and help put together a couple scoring drives, but somewhere deep down the talent that Vanderbilt has on defense with its veterans is still there.
This week is a perfect time for the talent Vanderbilt’s leaders have shown in the past to finally return this weekend. It is a close one, but Vanderbilt ends its losing streak Saturday.
Coming off the bye and desperate for a win, Vanderbilt should have no trouble competing with a Mississippi State team that's without Taylor and riding a four-game losing streak. To have a shot, the Commodores need to take some pressure off Jared Curtis by establishing a ground game, something they’ve struggled to do for several weeks. If it does so and the defense can get off the field more consistently, Vanderbilt could steal one on the road. But I like the Bulldogs to pull away late and hand Lea’s squad its sixth straight loss.
Could this be the week?
All the stars appear to be aligning here for Lea and company, barring a Swann revenge game of sorts–which isn’t a true revenge game because he and Vanderbilt left it on good terms. Mississippi State is still probably more talented as a whole and has the home-field advantage, but this is Vanderbilt’s best chance left at a win and picking it here is a bet on its leadership righting the ship and Vanderbilt’s staff finally getting the most out of this group.
It’s plausible that the ball will move a lot Saturday, but that a significant portion of drives don’t get finished because of up and down quarterback play on both sides. Vanderbilt’s offense should be more explosive with most of its ones on the field than Mississippi State’s should be with Swann at quarterback, though. The question is whether Vanderbilt can hold up on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. If it can, it should leave Saturday with a win.
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Joey Dwyer is the lead writer on Vanderbilt Commodores On SI. He found his first love in college sports at nearby Lipscomb University and decided to make a career of telling its best stories. He got his start doing a Notre Dame basketball podcast from his basement as a 14-year-old during COVID and has since aimed to make that 14-year-old proud. Dwyer has covered Vanderbilt sports for three years and previously worked for 247 Sports and Rivals. He contributes to Seth Davis' Hoops HQ, Basket Under Review and Mainstreet Nashville.
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