Updated Game-by-Game Prediction For Tennessee Football With Four Games Remaining – Rocky Top Insider

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Tennessee football is at its bye week and has four regular-season games remaining. The playoffs aren’t out of the picture, either. If the Vols can run the table, they’d very likely be in the 12-team field as an at-large bid.
However, it won’t be easy to go perfect. Tennessee has a home game against Kentucky, an away game at Texas A&M, is back home against LSU and is on the road at Vanderbilt.
Ahead of this final stretch, I’m logging my predictions for how the final games will pan out and offering a postseason projection.
On paper, this may be the toughest game left. Kentucky is playing great football in year one under Will Stein, with its only loss coming to Alabama when things got away in the second half. What’s been a key to the Wildcats’ success has been a competent offense behind quarterback Kenny Minchey.
I think Tennessee will pull out a narrow one, though. Both teams are coming off a bye week and have two weeks to prepare for the game, but I think that plays into the hands of Vols defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. If any defense in the conference can stop Kentucky, it’s UT’s group. I’ll take a strong game from DeSean Bishop and enough of a defensive effort to win.
 
It’s really tough for me to pick Tennessee on the road against any SEC teams right now. The Vols have been bad in away games under Josh Heupel, and right when it seemed like the program may have been turning a corner, UT completely beat itself at South Carolina.
Texas A&M is having a brutal year, and fans may not be fully into it at that point, but Tennessee has sputtered and shot itself in the foot in front of far less intimidating environments. Though this is a game the Vols should absolutely win, I’ll believe it when I see it with UT on the road.
 
The loss to Texas A&M would effectively dash playoff chances for Tennessee. Some mayhem across the SEC and country could sneak the Vols in, but it’d be very unlikely. When LSU comes to town, there’s a chance it is going to be playing for its playoff chances, too, with two losses already taken. However, games against Alabama and Texas, though both are at home, make me think they’ll also have at least three losses.
With Lane Kiffin coming to town again, Tennessee fans will create another incredible atmosphere and a tough place to play. I’d also think the Vols will be motivated enough not to mail in the season or anything along those lines. With UT’s pass rush able to get after the quarterback, I think it could be a game where Sam Leavitt turns it over, and Tennessee rides those to victory.
 
The final game for Tennessee is at Vanderbilt, which isn’t much of a road game. Typically, about 70%, if not more, of the Commodores’ stadium is in orange when the Vols come to town. Making matters worse for Vanderbilt, it has completely returned to earth this year as the worst team in the SEC after a record year with Diego Pavia at quarterback in 2025.
I have no concern about Tennessee in this game, either. UT is the better team all over the field and should roll to another win in Nashville.
 
With my predictions having Tennessee finishing 9-3 (6-3 SEC), it’d have the Vols as one of the better teams outside the playoff field in the SEC. With a possible logjam of 9-3 teams, though, UT may not get the nod from the Citrus Bowl, which goes to the top SEC team outside the playoffs.
If it’s not the Citrus Bowl, a return to the Gator Bowl for the first time since 2019 would make sense. With the other side slated to be an ACC opponent, why not pick the easy storyline with Virginia Tech, too? The Hokies are led by James Franklin, who had Jim Knowles as his defensive coordinator last year at Penn State. Tennessee also has a trio of Nittany Lion defenders leading the way.
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