Three Keys and a Prediction: Vanderbilt Football vs. Arkansas – Sports Illustrated

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NASHVILLE—Vanderbilt football looks to get back on track Saturday against Arkansas, but can it?
Its Saturday matchup is its best chance to win an SEC game, but Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea has spent the week voicing his displeasure with where his team is following a blowout loss to Ole Miss.
Now, Vanderbilt sits at a crossroads. If it brings it Saturday, it will have reason for optimism the rest of the way. If it doesn’t, it risks the bottom falling out.
Here’s what will determine whether it can find a way to win or not and a prediction.
Clark Lea said Tuesday that Vanderbilt hadn’t responded fully to its blowout loss to Ole Miss. Lea had about hit his breaking point when he took the podium Tuesday and he had a pretty clear explanation.
“Right now, we’re playing as if we’re entitled to an outcome and we’re offended when it doesn’t go the way we want it to go,” Lea said. “That mentality and attitude is what I’m attacking right now internally. I say that in a way that’s meant to be reflective, not judgemental, because ultimately I’m responsible for it. I don’t see these things as independent of my imprint or my influence. I think this is a 24/7 self reflection that gives way to processing about where the team is and what my message needs to be.” 
Lea says this group is past messaging and that it needs action. It needs to prove that it is who it says it is and that it’s about what it says it’s about. It still hasn’t done any of that.
Saturday is an opportunity for it to humble itself, prepare for Arkansas as if Arkansas can beat it and take care of business. It doesn’t matter as much that Vanderbilt wins Saturday as it does that it respects Arkansas and demonstrates that it’s been receptive to Lea’s messaging. 
Vanderbilt is No. 6 in the country in penalties. Yes. Really. No. 6.
That’s the complete antithesis of what Lea has built this thing on. It’s losing the margins. It’s careless when it has to be engaged and operating at a high level. It gave away eight points to Ole Miss because of penalties. 
As a result, Lea has a new practice in place. He’s making the Vanderbilt offense do an up-down for every penalty yard it gives away in practice.
Maybe that will teach them. If it doesn’t, expect Vanderbilt to make this closer than it should be or lose. 
Vanderbilt turned it over four times against Ole Miss and gave away 24 points on Saturday. That’s far from good enough. That will lose you the game almost every time, no matter who the opponent is.
It’s not as if that’s unfixable. It’s on Vanderbilt’s receiver to haul in the ball on plays they really should be doing so. It’s on freshman kick returner Evan Hampton to avoid putting the ball in harm’s way. It’s on Jared Curtis to make smarter decisions.
Vanderbilt is more talented than Arkansas, but turning it over a few times is an easy way to lose a game that it shouldn’t. The bad news for Vanderbilt is that it hasn’t indicated it can’t go a day without turning it over often. 
It’s hard to confidently pick Vanderbilt to win a game against an SEC opponent at this stage, but this is its best bet yet. It’s the best chance it has at one the rest of the way, too.
Arkansas isn’t quite a mess, but it’s been close to one through the first few weeks of Ryan Silverfield’s tenure. The bad thing for Vanderbilt is that Silverfield’s team appears to be trending up, and Vanderbilt is progressively descending. 
With all that being said, though, Saturday is about Vanderbilt. If it cleans it up, it should win significantly. If not…well.
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Joey Dwyer is the lead writer on Vanderbilt Commodores On SI. He found his first love in college sports at nearby Lipscomb University and decided to make a career of telling its best stories. He got his start doing a Notre Dame basketball podcast from his basement as a 14-year-old during COVID and has since aimed to make that 14-year-old proud. Dwyer has covered Vanderbilt sports for three years and previously worked for 247 Sports and Rivals. He contributes to Seth Davis' Hoops HQ, Basket Under Review and Mainstreet Nashville.
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