Published:
By: Dan Johnson
Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Saturday’s game between the Auburn Tigers and the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jared Curtis needed only one start to make Vanderbilt’s passing offense a heck of a lot more interesting. Against NC State, he completed 20 of 34 throws for 277 yards and three touchdowns, with 205 yards arriving after halftime. Junior Sherrill caught two touchdown passes.
Auburn is a fine defense to face . The Tigers allow 252 passing yards per game, compared with 3.2 yards per carry, and their opponent-adjusted run defense ranks 12th among 68 Power Four teams. I expect Tim Beck to ask Curtis for meaningful passing production to get them the win in this game.
Curtis also carried 12 times for 64 yards against NC State, and I’m affording for that part of the offense. I’m keeping him around 30 to 33 attempts and 240 to 2555 passing yards.
Over 192.5 leaves room for the inevitable untidy stretches in a freshman’s first road start. Auburn can disrupt individual possessions; I still expect Curtis and Sherrill to sustain enough of Vanderbilt’s passing offense to clear this number.
Alex Golesh brought Byrum Brown, Chas Nimrod, and Keshaun Singleton with him from South Florida, and Auburn’s passing game has benefited from that familiarity. Singleton churned out 99 receiving yards against Florida and Nimrod tacked on 95 as Brown reached 271 through the air. The move into SEC play has required some legitimate adjustment, though.
Brown’s final total included Nimrod’s 35-yard touchdown with 24 seconds remaining, so I’m tempering any expectation of another 270-yard performance. Auburn spent much of that game chasing and attempted 35 passes. I have fewer throws in this projection today.
Vanderbilt just allowed CJ Bailey to throw for 275 yards, while Auburn averages only 20.3 seconds per play. Even after reducing Brown’s attempts into the low 30s, that pace should create enough offensive snaps to support a forecast around 235 to 245 yards.
I’m taking the over. Brown’s running remains a competing use of those snaps, and a large Auburn lead could accelerate the shift toward handoffs. Still, I like him to bounce back through the air here after the loss to Florida.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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