Vanderbilt football game-by-game predictions 2026. See our projected final record – The Tennessean

Vanderbilt football’s 2026 season is almost here.
The Commodores will kick off their schedule against Austin Peay on Sept. 5 (6 p.m. CT, SEC Network+). Vanderbilt will play a nine-game SEC schedule for the first time in 2026.
The Vegas over/under for the Commodores is 5.5 wins, indicating an expectation that Vanderbilt has a 50/50 chance of being a bowl team in 2026. Vanderbilt is setting its sights higher with 5-star quarterback Jared Curtis in the fold.
Here are our game-by-game score predictions:
Date: Sept. 5
Austin Peay is one of the better teams in FCS, and this game may not be pretty, especially with Vanderbilt playing its first game while the Governors play Week Zero. But the talent gap feels substantial enough that the Commodores pull away.
Delaware is in its second year in FBS after transitioning from FCS. The Blue Hens had a solid 2025, but when they played Wake Forest in 2025, it lost big. If Vanderbilt struggles in this game, it will be a red flag.
Date: Sept. 12
Date: Sept. 19
Once Vanderbilt starts playing Power Four opponents, expect some lower-scoring grinders. This game could be a dogfight throughout, but it feels like one that should favor the Commodores considering that they are playing at home.
Date: Sept. 26
This is certainly a winnable game for Vanderbilt against an opponent the Commodores have a two-game winning streak against. But this is a tough spot for Vanderbilt in its first road contest while still breaking in a new starting quarterback, against a team with a new coach.
Date: Oct. 3
Similar to Texas last season, Georgia feels like a team whose defense will stifle Vanderbilt early on, but without the Diego Pavia near-comeback that happened last season.
Date: Oct. 10
Ole Miss could be a team like Vanderbilt was last season. There are defensive questions, but the offense should be plenty explosive led by a sixth-year quarterback in Trinidad Chambliss. That could spell trouble with a Commodores offense that will likely struggle to come back if it gets behind early.
Date: Oct. 17
Arkansas is one of five teams on Vanderbilt’s 2026 SEC schedule with a new coach, and Ryan Silverfield is the least accomplished of the bunch. At home, this is a very much winnable game for the Commodores.
Date: Oct. 24
Kentucky is an interesting squad under new coach Will Stein. But this is a rebuild, and the Commodores have defeated the Wildcats three out of the last four matchups, including the last two in Lexington.
Date: Nov. 7
Mississippi State has struggled over the past few years, but this game could be more difficult than Kentucky and Arkansas due to the road atmosphere at Davis Wade Stadium.
Date: Nov. 14
Ever since Vanderbilt beat Alabama in 2024, the Commodores have been seen as a trap game for the Crimson Tide. But after Kalen DeBoer’s squad got the better of Vanderbilt in Tuscaloosa last year, both the shock value and mental aspect have lessened.
Date: Nov. 21
The Swamp has been a house of horrors for Vanderbilt as of late, with the Commodores unable to win there even amid a string of average performances for the Gators. Now, Florida has a new coach in Jon Sumrall who figures to elevate the Gators over the mess that was the Billy Napier era.
Date: Nov. 28
Vanderbilt beat Tennessee in Knoxville last season, and the Vols will also have a new quarterback and a defense that’s already suffered a lot of injuries. This is a winnable contest for the Commodores and a chance to end the regular season on a high note at home.
Vanderbilt football 2026 record prediction: 7-5.

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