Preseason Game Prediction: Vanderbilt Football vs. NC State – Sports Illustrated

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Vanderbilt football head coach Clark Lea and NC State football head coach Dave Doeren have not gone head-to-head as head coaches before, but Lea has seen a Doeren-coached Wolfpack team before.
When Lea was the linebacker coach at Notre Dame in 2017, the Fighting Irish beat NC State by three touchdowns. But this time, it is a totally different scenario when Lea and Doeren coach against each other in mid-September in the 2026 season.
Vanderbilt hosts NC State in its final nonconference game of its season this fall. Both teams are coming off bowl game appearances and both teams are looking to do it again and more.
When the Commodores and Wolfpack take the field at FirstBank Stadium, it sets up to be an intriguing matchup. An experienced dual-threat quarterback in NC State’s CJ Bailey takes on a Vanderbilt defense that is wanting to prove the doubters wrong. On the flip side, Vanderbilt does not know who will be the quarterback of its offense at this moment when it takes on a NC State defense that added a few guys from the transfer portal after what was a not-so-great defense in 2025.
NC State’s offense has a new look this season after losing its leading rusher, Hollywood Smothers, to Texas and lost two of its best receiving threats between Terrell Anderson and Justin Joly.
NC State added a few receiving options on offense over the offense, but Bailey is ultimately going to be the biggest threat to Vanderbilt’s defense this game. The biggest key for the Commodores in this game will be whether they can contain Bailey’s rushing ability.
Making him a one-dimensional quarterback will take away a huge part of his effectiveness and force him to make plays with his arm. Bailey can throw the ball, but what makes him great in the passing game is the way he can fool defenses when he gets outside the pocket.
Offensively for Vanderbilt, a lot of the outlook of this game determines who will play quarterback at this time and how effective he is. Whoever it is, it will be the first sizable test of the season. It also depends on how impactful NC State’s new-look defense is.
When looking at Vanderbilt’s offense against NC State’s defense, the most reliable factor is Vanderbilt’s offensive line. The Commodores filled a couple of holes in its starting front with more experienced players that should help them be one of the better offensive lines in college football.
At the end of the day, the more sure thing is that Vanderbilt’s offensive line is going to get a push against NC State’s defense, which was vulnerable a season ago. As long as the quarterback play is sufficient enough, Vanderbilt should be able to score enough.
If Vanderbilt’s defense prevents Bailey from running all over the field, the Commodores should win this game and I think that happens in a close game. Vanderbilt will get to 3-0.
Score Prediction: Vanderbilt 27, NC State 20
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Graham Baakko is a writer for Vanderbilt Commodores On SI, primarily covering football, basketball and baseball. Graham is a recent graduate from the University of Alabama, where he wrote for The Crimson White, WVUA-FM, WVUA 23 as he covered a variety of Crimson Tide sports. He also covered South Carolina athletics as a sportswriting intern for GamecockCentral.
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