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Vanderbilt’s Clark Lea and Tennessee’s Josh Heupel both entered the SEC as head coaches in 2021.
ESPN recently revealed its list of the top 10 coaches in college football and it unsurprisingly reeked of recency bias.
Admittedly, I’m not a fan of coach rankings. I don’t think they provide any value, and I don’t think there’s any way to ever be accurate with them.
Sure, we have a decent idea of who the good coaches are and who has struggled, but suggesting that anyone can rank them with any sort of certainty seems quite pretentious to me. There are just far too many variables that impact how much success a coach has — at all levels and in all sports.
From athletic department/front office support to injuries to strength of schedule to the players themselves (remember, they’re the ones actually competing), there’s just too much that goes into wins and losses beyond who the coach is.
I mean, if one team goes 10-2 because the kicker missed a field goal and a player on the other team made a terrific play at the end of the game in the two losses, and another team goes 12-0 because the kicker made the field goal and the player on the other team couldn’t quite make the terrific play, does it really say anything about the coach of either team?
While I don’t put much stock into these lists, I thought it was interesting that ESPN’s writers gave Vanderbilt Commodores head coach Clark Lea one top 10 vote while Tennessee Vols head coach Josh Heupel received zero top 10 votes.
I guess it’s the recency bias (Vandy beat Tennessee last season) that led to those voting results, but even then it’s quite odd.
Lea is 26-36 since entering the SEC in 2021.
Heupel is 45-20.
Tennessee has multiple 10-win seasons and a College Football Playoff appearance under Heupel.
Vanderbilt has one 10 win season and no College Football Playoff appearances under Lea.
Heupel has zero losing seasons at Tennessee.
Lea has three losing seasons at Vanderbilt.
But here are the two words that ESPN is really ignoring in giving Lea the vote over Heupel: Diego Pavia.
Lea hasn’t had any success at Vanderbilt without Pavia, a player who competed as hard on the field as anyone I’ve seen in recent years. Pavia may not be a future NFL stud, but he elevated the play of those around him because he’s an elite competitor.
Without Pavia, Lea’s record at Vanderbilt is 9-27.
Heupel, on the other hand, has only had the same quarterback for more than one year once in five seasons (Hendon Hooker in 2021 and 2022). And none of Heupel’s quarterbacks, to this point, have been future NFL stars (Hooker, Joe Milton, Nico Iamaleava, and Joey Aguilar).
Doesn’t that say more about Heupel’s coaching than Lea’s coaching in two seasons with Pavia?
Now, I’m not saying that Heupel is definitively a better coach than Lea. I like NoHo Hank Lea. I think he’s about the right stuff, and I think he has an elite process — I truly do.
But Heupel clearly has a bigger track record of success in the SEC than Lea (and it’s not like Jeremy Pruitt handed Heupel a Ferrari when he burned the program down in 2020/2021, it was more like a beat up Corolla)
They’re both good coaches, and who knows what the 2026 season will bring. I just think Heupel deserves the benefit of the doubt more than he’s getting from ESPN.
2027 five-star running back David Gabriel Georges will be choosing between the Tennessee Vols and the Ohio State Buckeyes on July 22.
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