Column: At This Point, a Hoover Run May Be Needed For Vanderbilt Baseball – Sports Illustrated

A sense of hopelessness and doom seemed to loom over the head of Vanderbilt baseball after the first inning as the Commodores trailed No. 24 Alabama 5-0 in the series finale Saturday in a game where Vanderbilt had no choice but to win.
The Commodores were able to battle back, scoring four runs over the next two innings and cutting the deficit to just 5-4. But the lack of the big hit for Vanderbilt in the second half of the game made that gloomy sense it seemed to have at the start of the game into a reality as the Commodores lost 8-5 and were swept by the Crimson Tide.
With the sweep, Vanderbilt fell to 10-14 on the season and dropped its second consecutive SEC series and its fourth series in the last five weekends.
After Friday’s loss, the margin for error reached razor thin for Vanderbilt. After Saturday’s sweeping loss, the margin for error is quite literally zero. There is no more margin for error left if the Commodores want to make the NCAA Tournament.
Saturday’s game against Alabama was a game that could have kept Vanderbilt on pace to sneak into the tournament without needing to go on a run at the SEC Tournament later this month had it won. The reason being because Alabama is No. 6 in the RPI, so it would have been Vanderbilt’s strongest win of the season by far. 
Instead, going 7-0 to finish the regular season may not be enough for Vanderbilt to make the NCAA Tournament. It has now reached a point where going on a SEC Tournament run may be necessary. Maybe not winning a SEC championship, but it may need to win a game or two even without losing another game before May 19.
The rest of Vanderbilt’s schedule is against three teams that will not be in this season’s NCAA Tournament barring something unforeseen happening. The Commodores take on Louisville Tuesday for their final midweek game of the season before traveling to last place Missouri next weekend and closing up with a home series against South Carolina.
It is a chance to stack wins for Vanderbilt in a very dire situation, but it may not be enough given that all three teams are ranked 91st or worse in the RPI right now.
Because of that, there is little upside to winning out other than Vanderbilt doing just enough to get back to being squarely on the bubble for the SEC Tournament. But the downside is severe. Each loss for Vanderbilt feels like a gut punch that requires an additional win it would have to make up for in Hoover, Alabama. Losing to a team that is highly likely to not even touch the NCAA Tournament conversation would be a bad look for Vanderbilt at this point. In order to give itself the strongest case to sneak into the tournament, it cannot afford losses to non-tournament teams.
Not to mention, it is far from a guarantee that Vanderbilt does go 7-0 to finish out the regular season.
At first, it seemed like getting to 15-15 in the SEC would be just enough for Vanderbilt to make the tournament. Now, that seems to be very much in doubt as Vanderbilt would not have many strong wins to brag about on its resume. In fact, going 16-14 (6-0 in the remaining two series) may not even be enough if Vanderbilt goes one and done at the SEC Tournament.
A 16-14 record in the SEC without winning a game at the SEC Tournament may be enough to be squarely on the bubble, but is it enough to land on the right side of the bubble? 
Additionally, how much can Vanderbilt improve its RPI ranking before the SEC Tournament? That is ultimately the most important question of all. Vanderbilt entered the week 64th in the RPI. That is already not a favorable place to be. Now, Vanderbilt will drop further after this weekend’s sweep.
It is a tough hill to climb and a steep one at that. The only thing left to find out is if it is too steep for Vanderbilt to climb up.
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Graham Baakko is a writer for Vanderbilt Commodores On SI, primarily covering football, basketball and baseball. Graham is a recent graduate from the University of Alabama, where he wrote for The Crimson White, WVUA-FM, WVUA 23 as he covered a variety of Crimson Tide sports. He also covered South Carolina athletics as a sportswriting intern for GamecockCentral.
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