Tyler Tanner (right) dribbles as Nebraska’s Sam Hoiberg defends.
Tyler Tanner (right) dribbles as Nebraska’s Sam Hoiberg defends.
Plenty of Vanderbilt basketball fans are understandably anxious wondering whether star guard Tyler Tanner will maintain his eligibility for the 2026 NBA Draft or return to school for a third season.
But if the Brentwood native follows the recent trend among college players, there may be cause for rejoicing on West End.
Many potential NBA prospects didn’t even bother to make themselves eligible for the draft this season, choosing the comforts of staying at their respective schools.
The league announced Monday that only 71 early entrants had entered their names in the 2026 NBA Draft pool, down 33 percent from 106 names last year and way down from a peak of 363 in 2021.
This year’s total of 71 was the lowest since 2003.
The list of potential first-round picks who chose not to even test the NBA’s pre-draft waters reportedly included the likes of Florida’s Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas, Connecticut’s Braylon Mullins, Duke’s Patrick Ngongba II and Illinois’ David Mirkovic.
Other potential first-round picks, such as Florida’s Rueben Chinyelu and USC’s Alijah Arenas, have reportedly already withdrawn their names from the draft eligibility list.
That number will likely grow in the coming weeks. Fifty players eventually withdrew their names from the 2025 NBA Draft last year, including the following: forward Yaxel Lendeborg, who returned to college and won a championship at Michigan after transferring from UAB; guard Silas Demary Jr., who reached the championship game with Connecticut after transferring from Georgia; and Vanderbilt’s Devin McGlockton and AK Okereke (who was at Cornell at the time).
Why are so many choosing to forego potential big money in the NBA?
Simple: Most are earning that same kind of money — or better — in NIL (name, image, likeness) income from their respective schools, a practice that began in 2021.
Florida’s Haugh, for instance, is expected to make about what he would earn in his first two NBA seasons combined if drafted in the top 20 this season, per The Athletic. Haugh acknowledged that NIL played a role in choosing to return to the Gators, but added that more than just income went into his decision.
“You’re not gonna’ be like, it’s not [a part of it],” Haugh told The Athletic. “But I think for me personally, it’s just going out and playing with my boys again and putting on the orange and blue.”
It’s fair to say that Tanner was every bit as important — probably more so — to the Commodores than Haugh was to the Gators.
Tanner averaged 19.5 points, 5.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 2.4 steals during the 2025-26 season, shooting 49 percent from the field and 37 percent from three-point distance on the way to earning first-team All-SEC and honorable mention All-America honors.
So how much would Vanderbilt have to pay Tanner to keep the NBA at bay?
There are no public figures as to what players are paid, but On3 estimated the NIL value of 10 basketball players this season as at least $2 million, with the top money maker — BYU’s AJ Dybantsa — valued at $4.2 million.
On the NBA side of things, there’s no guarantee Tanner would be picked in the first round of the draft, as most mock drafts have the 6-0, 175-pounder getting selected near the end of the first or early in the second.
If he was to fall to the second round, Tanner might expect a three-year deal worth between $5.9 and $6.7 million, or a four-year deal worth between $8.7 million to $10 million, per hooprumors.com.
But second-round picks aren’t likely to get the same amount of money that a first-round selection receives via a guaranteed deal. Relatedly, second-round selections do not automatically receive guaranteed contracts.
Tanner’s decision will obviously be a massive difference maker for Vanderbilt’s prospects in 2026-27.
ESPN’s new way-too-early top 25 poll for 2026-27 ranks Vandy 13th in the nation, assuming Tanner does indeed choose to stay in the college ranks.
If he doesn’t, well, Vanderbilt coach Mark Byington will still have plenty of recently recruited portal talent. But he’ll be missing a potential All-American who has played in the system for the past two seasons.
Tanner can wait as long as May 27 to remove his name from 2026 draft eligibility, which gives him time to participate in the NBA Combine, hire an agent and seek advice from the NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee.
If he winds up following the recent trend of many of his talented peers around the nation, Tanner will make Commodores nation very happy.
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