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Men’s Basketball: Previewing Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
After a three-game lull of losses in the middle of January, No. 18 Vanderbilt (18-3, 5-3 SEC) continues to regain momentum after blowout wins against Mississippi State (88-56) and Kentucky (80-55). Head coach Mark Byington’s squad will now play Ole Miss this Saturday at home, a prime opportunity to earn a third-straight victory. Unranked Ole Miss (11-9, 3-4 SEC) has struggled at the bottom half of the SEC (No. 12 in conference standings) and comes off a recent loss against Kentucky (63-72), a team Vanderbilt just beat by 25.
Ole Miss has relied on pace control, ball security and drawing fouls to stay competitive this season. Vanderbilt enters the matchup with a more efficient offense and a stronger scoring balance as a higher-ranked team overall. Ole Miss’s lack of offensive efficiency and defensive consistency will leave a pretty narrow margin for error against an elite Vanderbilt squad. Nonetheless, the Commodores need to uphold a fast tempo and improve rebounding to secure the win and continue proving their hot season has not been a fluke.
A key matchup for this game is pace. Much of Vanderbilt’s offensive success this season stems from attacking quickly. With an adjusted tempo of 70.5 (ranking No. 38 nationally), they play very fast while avoiding recklessness. The Commodores push the pace intentionally by moving fast enough to create advantages but controlled enough to remain efficient. The squad shoots very early in the shot clock, averaging 15.7 seconds per trip (No. 26 nationally). This tempo helps create transition looks and tends to wear down opponents.
On the other hand, Ole Miss prefers to slow the game down and grind possessions. The Rebels play at a very slow pace (65.1 possessions per game, No. 295 nationally), which indicates a half-court approach designed to limit mistakes rather than overwhelm opponents. Ole Miss also uses longer offensive possessions of 17.4 seconds per trip on average, which indicates a patient style valuing ball security. However, this slower tempo comes at the expense of shot quality (averaging a 50.4% effective field goal percentage). Moreover, the Rebels rarely generate the kind of live-ball turnovers that can slow a fast team like Vanderbilt.
Ole Miss’s slower approach creates a potential vulnerability for the Commodores to exploit. If Vanderbilt can successfully push the pace, the Rebels will be forced further out of their comfort zone, into a faster rhythm that could compromise their control.
Another important contest will be at the guard position, between team leaders Tyler Tanner and AJ Storr. Pressure on either key player will heavily influence the trajectory of the game.
A bulk of Vanderbilt’s historic success thus far can be attributed to Tanner. In his sophomore year, Tanner has emerged as an outstanding guard who averages 17.5 points and 5.2 assists per game and shoots 49.0% from the field. For Ole Miss, AJ Storr — a senior from Rockford, Illinois — averages 13.9 points and 2.0 assists per game while shooting 42.6% from the field.
While the statistics indicate Tanner as the more elite player, Storr cannot be overlooked. His 28.0% usage rate marks him as Mississippi’s go-to option, and his ability to create offensive opportunities under extreme defensive attention is threatening.
Storr carries the heavier scoring burden and is asked to generate the offense constantly, especially late in the shot clock. While Tanner is still heavily relied on for the ’Dores (25.1% usage), his actions are less forced and pressured with more supporting scorers. Increased defensive attention on Storr also makes his offensive rating (107.1) much lower than Tanner’s, who averages 125.8 points per 100 possessions.
Essentially, Storr is asked to do more while Tanner makes more with what he is given. If Ole Miss can slow the game down into a half-court battle, Tanner will be forced into higher usage situations — which Storr is already accustomed to. However, if Vanderbilt can control a faster tempo, the game will shift sharply in Tanner’s favor.
A recent struggle for Vanderbilt has been rebounding success, especially in all three of its losses to Texas, Florida and Arkansas. From its difficulties on the glass, a defining question emerges: Can Ole Miss gain possessions from Vanderbilt’s rebounding woes?
While the Commodores are solid on defensive rebounds, they miss crucial, easy points on the offensive boards. Vanderbilt ranks No. 203 nationally in offensive rebounding, rarely getting second-chance opportunities and prioritizing getting back on defense. This weakness was a killer for the ’Dores in their recent losing streak, and Ole Miss will certainly try to capitalize on that come Saturday.
Mississippi rebounds 30.7% of its own rebounds — a modest number, but one with more edge against a team that does not prioritize offensive rebounding. If Mississippi can consistently convert Vanderbilt’s missed shots into extra possessions, it will neutralize Vanderbilt’s other advantages in shooting and pacing. However, it will be a challenge for Ole Miss to fully offset the efficiency edge and spirit of the ’Dores to keep this game within reach.
Vanderbilt will face Ole Miss this Saturday, Jan. 31, at 5 p.m. CST at Memorial Gymnasium.
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